England v Brazil: What we can expect from the visitors

6Feb 2013

Betfair

Brazil face England on Wednesday evening at the start of a new era, but one in which only a World Cup victory will be sufficient. Ed Malyon talks us through the visitors...

Mano Menezes' side was a stuttering work in progression, but he was deposed just as his team seemed to be hitting the most upward of its curves. Having finally found the perfect system for his players - albeit by accident rather than design - the political wranglings saw him removed from his position with the somewhat questionable appointment of Luiz Felipe Scolari as his replacement.

The best news for Brazilians is that last time Felipão (Big Phil) was in charge of the national team, he took over only a year before the 2002 World Cup and swiftly ended up winning it, however since then he has not fared so well.

In fact, in the 10 years since that day in Yokohama, Scolari managed to take Portugal to the finals of the European Championships that they hosted, before an abject failure at Chelsea as well as guiding one of Brazil's biggest clubs - Palmeiras - to relegation last season. There was a title in the Uzbek league, but to say that it is a division of questionable quality is to understate the gulf between his time with Bunyodkor and Brazil.

How will they line up?

One of the big questions over Scolari's team is how he will set out his charges, with Mano Menezes' 4-2-3-1/4-2-4-0 having seemed to have finally clicked in his last few games as manager.

Injury to first-choice number nine Leandro Damião - whose form had been poor anyway - led to Menezes shifting Neymar in from his left-sided attacking role and playing as a false nine.

The movement and creativity of Oscar, Hulk and Kaká provided thrust and danger from deep while Neymar dragged defences out of position and could be more involved in play simply by virtue of not being pushed out to the flanks.

It seems that the 4-2-3-1 may remain, but it is unlikely to be in the same guise as that of Scolari's predecessor with two more conventional centre-forwards called up to the squad. Pushing Neymar out to the wing again seems an unwise move with his increased influence in a central role also leading club boss Muricy Ramalho to change his position at Santos in the early part of this season.

If Scolari is looking to retain Neymar as a more core player to his team then he could be considering a 4-3-1-2 with the youngster as part of a striking pair. He would naturally drift to the left and look to drop in and link play but it would save him from being marginalised on the wing and instead may draw Adriano further forward from full-back.

Against England, he will be looking to pinpoint the area behind Glen Johnson as the zone in which he will thrive, and the right-sided central defender - most probably Phil Jagielka - will need eyes in the back of his head.

In defence, Dante could well start after a long overdue call-up. He has been one of the standout defenders in the Bundesliga for two or three years now, and will partner David Luiz at the back. The Barcelona pair of Dani Alves and Adriano can be expected to fill the full-back roles while Ramires and Paulinho occupy the two positions in the double-pivot (in the case of a 4-2-3-1).

Oscar will either feature on the right of an attacking three, or as the most advanced of a central midfield three depending on Felipão's shape, and the two players that will have the most prescribed roles are Luis Fabiano who will play his natural game up front, and the recalled Ronaldinho who will be a central playmaker. With age, Ronaldinho has lost some of the pace and mobility that his fans from Barcelona and Milan will have been accustomed to, and he tends to play much higher up the field - closer to his forwards.

Likely line up: Júlio César; Dani Alves, David Luiz, Dante, Adriano; Ramires, Paulinho, Oscar; Ronaldinho; Neymar Luís Fabiano

Match Odds

That Brazil are favourites for this game says more about a lack of faith in England than it does support for the Canarinha. England's 3.35 looks big when you consider that their visitors could be using an unfamiliar shape and that if Scolari implements his 4-3-1-2 that he used so recently at Palmeiras, then the midfielders expected to start the game aren't particularly suitable.

Laying Brazil's 2.4 or going with England Draw No Bet at 2.14 would appear to be the value picks.

Goals

It's hard to pick any trends with this side when we aren't convinced we know how they will line-up and there are so many outliers to skew the stats.

Brazil have had some high-scoring wins of late, but usually in money-spinning friendlies against weak opposition. However, on further analysis we find that in games since the Copa America where a Brazil first-team (not domestic XI or under-23 side) has played another team in the FIFA Top 20, four out of five games have gone Over 2.5 Goals - the exception being their last game against Colombia.

For this reason, the overs look the best value on the goals markets at 2.06.

Other Bets

With eight goals in his last six Brazil games, Neymar is the obvious choice for a goalscorer bet and he is 2.52 to net anytime, and 7.0 to break the deadlock.

With the service around him, Fabiano is a good bet for scoring first at 7.6 although the likely England centre-back combo of Jagielka and Gary Cahill is likely to be more comfortable with his style than that of Neymar or Ronaldinho.

Recommended Bets

Best bet: Lay Brazil at 2.4

Back Over 2.5 goals at 2.06