Duels in the Desert

11Feb 2013

WTA új

The WTA's top names are in the Middle East over the next fortnight, competing for two of the most prestigious titles in the calendar. Guy McCrea considers who to back to come out on top in Doha and Dubai...

Whichever way you look at it, Doha and Dubai are extremely significant. 16 of the world's top 18 women are in Qatar this week (Li Na and Dominika Cibulkova are injured) with most of them also due to show up next week in the UAE. Both events hold lofty WTA Premier status and both offer multi-million dollar prize pots. So not surprisingly, both attract the world's best every year.

For me, it's a sign of the strength among the current WTA elite that frankly, it's tough to see anyone outside of the 'Big Three' of Victoria Azarenka, Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova winning this week in Doha. Indeed, in the ten years that these events have taken place together in February, no woman ranked lower than 11 has ever won the title in Doha or Dubai.

Of course, Doha holds even greater significance this week in that it could provide the setting for Serena Williams' ascension back to world number one for the sixth time in her illustrious career - the American last topped the rankings in October 2010. Long considered by many as the true 'Queen Bee' of the women's game - Serena (currently priced around 2.54 second-favourite on Betfair to win the Qatar Total Open) only needs to reach the semi-finals in Qatar to end Azarenka's reign and hit the summit once again. Back the American to score the three wins necessary to do that. Indeed if she stays fit, it's hardly groundbreaking for me to suggest you back Serena to win the whole tournament. It would be an apt return after that surprising Australian Open quarter final exit against Sloane Stephens last month.

Of the big three, only Sharapova has chosen to miss Dubai next week. But even if Serena, Azarenka (4 to retain her title in Doha) or one of the other elite names take the title in Doha, I think it is unlikely they will follow it up with another success in the UAE. While the change in conditions is not quite as sharp as it is say from Indian Wells to Miami in March, history shows it is tough to do the 'Desert Double.' In the ten years that Doha and Dubai have been held in February, only two women have won both in the same year - Justine Henin in 2007 and Martina Hingis back in 2001. Without the actual draw being known, it's obviously difficult to predict what will exactly happen next week in Dubai. But at this time, I veer away from the same name being inscribed on both trophies this year.

Who outside of the top-ranked stars could challenge this fortnight? I like Svetlana Kuznetsova's chances. After six months out with a knee injury last year I am not sure the Russian is yet back to the level required to win either title outright. But her form last month in Australia (quarter final runs in both Sydney and at the Australian Open) clearly showed that Kuznetsova remains capable of top-level tennis.

Added to that, Kuznetsova owns a tremendous past record in the Middle East, with five runner-up finishes in her career (three in Dubai and two in Doha.) She has also often used the Emirate as a training base in the past and clearly enjoys the often humid conditions. With a good-looking draw early on in Doha (I like Kuznetova at 4.5 to beat qualifier Bethanie Mattek-Sands in three sets in their first round match) there is a decent chance to make some profit on her progress during the early rounds.

Back Serena Williams to win the Qatar Total Open at 2.54