Don't expect a goal glut from England

 

Andrew Atherley has reached into his big book of football stats ahead of this week's World Cup qualifiers to bring you three recommended bets

 

England's match in San Marino - the first of their double-header in Group H - is all about goals: how many, when they will arrive, who will score them.

 

The outcomes in most of the markets seem blindingly obvious, which makes the odds very short, but there are one or two that could be worth backing at bigger prices.

 

In the half-time score market, for instance, the hot favourite is any unquoted score at 1.41. Yet one of the nine quoted scores has occurred in San Marino's last 17 home qualifiers and no visiting side has led by more than 2-0 at half-time since Germany were 6-0 up at the break on their way to a 13-0 victory in September 2006.

 

The standard of opposition varies greatly in qualifiers, but it is notable that the best side to visit San Marino since Germany - Holland in 2010 - were 2-0 up at half-time and eventually won 5-0.

 

The most common half-time score in San Marino's last 17 home matches has been 0-1, which has occurred seven times and is available at 4 against England. Five of the 17 have been goalless at half-time and 0-0 is 8, while 0-2 (which has occurred four times) is 3.5.

 

The half-time scores in England's away qualifiers against similar minnows in the past decade have been 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 - and they led 2-0 at the break in the reverse fixture against San Marino in October - which indicates it is no foregone conclusion they will build a big early lead.

 

The Wembley match ended 5-0 to England and the goals expectation is in the same area, as are the best options for punters. Those with a glass-half-full mentality when it comes to England could opt for over 5.5 goals at the odds-against price of 2.2 while the more pessimistic could go for under 4.5 goals at 2.2.

 

Only one of San Marino's 17 home qualifiers since the hammering by Germany has had over 5.5 goals, while 13 have had under 4.5 goals. Eight of England's 50 qualifiers in the past decade have had over 4.5 goals (only three of those were away) and their away scores against the minnows were 2-0, 3-0 and 2-0, so overall this might not be the runaway success the markets expect.

 

International weeks can lead punters to some strange places and one of the best bets on Friday could be Slovenia, who host Iceland in Group E.

 

Slovenia have won seven of their last nine competitive home matches against teams currently ranked outside the top 30, while Iceland have lost 12 of their last 15 competitive away games and won only one (2-1 in Albania during the current qualifying campaign).

 

The clincher is that Iceland are low scorers on the road, with 11 blanks in those last 15 away trips. If Slovenia score, as they usually do at home against all but the elite nations, they should win at 1.82.

 

One of the bigger prices that catches the eye is Denmark, who have started slowly in Group B but remain one of the most solid sides in European football and are capable of getting something in the Czech Republic.

 

The Danes have lost only three out of 21 in qualifiers since 2008 and two of those defeats were against top-class opponents (Italy and Portugal, both away). There is not much to choose between them and the Czech Republic, judging by their goalless draw in the reverse fixture, and win odds of 4 look generous.

 

Denmark's low defeat rate makes them particularly appealing at odds-against off 0 & +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.14.

 

Recommended Bets

Under 4.5 goals in San Marino v England at 2.2

Slovenia to beat Iceland at 1.82

Denmark off 0 & +0.5 on Asian handicap v Czech Republic at 2.14

 

Bet HERE

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