Domestic Cup Finals: Treble for Bayern Munich, pain for Bordeaux

31May 2013

Betfair

Michael Lintorn offers three bets for the televised cup finals in France and Germany...

Evian TG v Bordeaux, Friday 20:00, ESPN, Match Odds: Evian TG 4.4, Bordeaux 2.04, The Draw 3.35

Many punters will view the 2.04 available on Bordeaux to triumph in 90 minutes an absolute steal. They have more experience of these occasions, finished the Ligue 1 campaign nine places and 15 points better off, and beat Evian TG twice - most recently last Sunday at the Stade Chaban-Delmas.

Evian TG have beaten better teams than Bordeaux over the course of their second season at the top level though, thrashing Nice 4-0, winning away to Lille and holding Lyon twice, not to mention knocking champions Paris St-Germain out of this competition on penalties.

They followed that monumental result with a 4-0 demolition of eighth-place Lorient in the semi-finals, whereas Bordeaux only encountered one top-flight side on their entire five-match journey - relegated Troyes - yet never won by more than one goal.

It is also risky to read too much into last weekend's 2-1 Bordeaux victory, with Evian relaxing after commanding wins in their two prior encounters effectively ensured survival. Their midfielder Cedric Barbosa rather endearingly observed that "perhaps there was some good in the Bordeaux defeat because we now know what we should not do".

Bordeaux had won just five of their previous 17 games in 90 minutes and aren't as Coupe de France savvy as you might suspect. This is their first final since 1987 and they've lost six of the nine that they contested.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Bordeaux to win @ 2.06

Bayern Munich v Stuttgart, Saturday 19:00, ESPN, Match Odds: Bayern Munich 1.23, Stuttgart 15.5, The Draw 7.4

Bayern Munich's astounding 2012/13 statistics - played 53, won 45, drawn five, lost three - and even more implausible 2013-exclusive figures - played 26, won 24, drawn one, lost one - indicate that one of the most one-sided cup finals ever await.

Brazilian football's governing body, the CBF, have tried to inject uncertainty into the final leg of Jupp Heynckes' third stint as Bayern boss and bid to finish with the first legitimate treble in German football history. They refused Dante and Luiz Gustavo permission to face Stuttgart, even though both are expected to start Sunday's friendly with England as substitutes.

However, both Bayern's squad depth and recent superiority over Stuttgart mean that it shouldn't ruin the party. The trophy hoarders have won eight in a row against the bottom-half finishers, scoring five or more in three of those clashes and 27 in total. They also curtailed Stuttgart's cup progress in both 2010/11 and 2011/12.

Usually you wouldn't expect such dominant win margins to be replicated in a cup final but the last three DFB Pokal deciders finished 4-0, 5-0 and 5-2, and Bayern were involved in two of those showpieces.

Heynckes' side have scored three or more goals in seven of their last ten games, while Champions League final winner Arjen Robben has been key to their domestic cup success, firing four times in four appearances, including the all-important quarter-final clincher against Borussia Dortmund.

Recommended Bets:

Back Bayern Munich to score three or more goals @ 1.82

Back Arjen Robben to score @ 2.2