Defences to dominate as Bayer and Benfica clash

14Feb 2013

Europa Liga

Kevin Hatchard has been looking through the last 32 of the Europa League to find the best bets.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Benfica, Thu 18:00 BST

Match Odds: Bayer 2.3, Benfica 3.5, the draw 3.5

Bayer Leverkusen have been involved in some thrilling shootouts in the last couple of weeks. A 3-2 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund was followed by a topsy-turvy 3-3 draw at Borussia Monchengladbach. It may be tempting to think this trend will continue against Benfica, but I'm expecting a much tighter contest.

Bayer have played 13 home games in all competitions this term, and seven of them have featured Under 2.5 Goals. Bayer have conceded just nine goals at home in ten Bundesliga contests, and in the Europa League group stage they kept clean sheets in all three home games, and kept five shutouts in six matches overall.

Benfica kept clean sheets in three of their Champions League group games, including goalless draws at Celtic and Barcelona. The Portuguese giants have conceded just 14 goals in 18 league games.

Bayer have played more conservatively in Europe than in the Bundesliga, and I can't see either team taking too many risks in the first leg of an evenly matched tie. Under 2.5 Goals looks overpriced at 2.12.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.12

FC Basel vs Dnipro, Thu 20:05 BST

Match Odds: Basel 2.54, Dnipro 3.05, the draw 3.45

Dnipro were one of the suprise packages in the group stage, topping a section which included Napoli and PSV Eindhoven. The Ukrainians won all three of their home games, and their performances on the road were also impressive. They led 2-1 in Naples with 13 minutes to go before Edinson Cavani took control of the match, won 2-1 in Eindhoven against PSV, and scored twice late on to beat AIK 3-2 in Stockholm. Seven of Dnipro's eight Europa League games have featured Over 2.5 Goals.

FC Basel are unbeaten at home in the Swiss Super League and the Europa League, but they did lose 2-1 at home to CFR Cluj in a Champions League qualifier. They returned from their winter break with a comfortable 3-0 home win against Sion.

Dnipro have been full of goals in this competition, while FC Basel have scored an average of more than two goals per home game this season. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at a tempting 2.0, and if you want to back Dnipro to pull off another fine result on the road, you could back them -0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.14. Dnipro boss Juande Ramos won this tournament twice with Sevilla, and I think he could mastermind another away win.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0

Back Dnipro -0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.14

Stuttgart vs Genk, Thu 20:05 BST

Match Odds: Stuttgart 1.57, Genk 7.0, the draw 4.2

Stuttgart's season is descending into crisis. The Swabians had built up a head of steam before Christmas, but the winter break has proved a disastrous interruption. Stuttgart have lost all four league games in 2013, conceding 11 goals in the process. The weekend's 4-1 home defeat to Werder Bremen was particularly abject, as Bremen are usually terrible on their travels. It's also worth noting that Stuttgart didn't win any of their three home games in the group stage, losing the most recent match 1-0 to Molde.

Genk have made a much better start to 2013, winning three of their four matches in the Belgian Jupiler League. Their road results in the Europa League have been good - they picked up draws at FC Basel and Sporting Lisbon, and their 1-0 success at Videoton was highly impressive. They have also lost just three of their 13 road games in the league.

Stuttgart are too short given their wretched form, and I would either lay them, or back Genk Draw No Bet at 4.5.

Recommended Bet: Back Genk Draw No Bet at 4.5