Conditions favour Pella against Dodig in round one

7Mar 2013

ATP Masters 1000

The tennis tour moves on to Indian Wells for the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert, who is covering the men's half of the competition, has selected a first round match where the favourite may struggle in the desert conditions...

Thursday sees the opening first round matches of the BNP Paribas Open take place in the California desert.

The established stars of the ATP Tour won't appear yet, but there are still plenty of competitive matches around to interest us from a betting perspective before the weekend.

Today's schedule at Indian Wells features a fascinating clash between David Nalbandian and Marcel Granollers in which I would side with the Spaniard at a decent price if it weren't for the fact that Nalbandian made the quarters here last year coming straight from clay and has points to defend.

Instead I'm interested in laying Ivan Dodig to win 2-0 against left-handed Argentine qualifier Guido Pella in a match that kicks off in the early hours of Friday morning UK time.

Pella has qualified for a Masters 1000 main draw for the first time this week and he's done it pretty comfortably, beating Alex Bogomolov Jr and Michael Berrer in straight sets and he faces a very beatable opponent in Dodig today.

The 22-year-old Pella spends most of the season on clay, but he proved his worth on the quicker surfaces by winning the Challenger Tour Finals on indoor hard at the end of last season beating Thomaz Bellucci and Victor Hanescu.

Conditions at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden are generally slow with heavy balls and that suits the clay courters more than many hard courts on the tour and I can't see it suiting Dodig who has never won a match at Indian Wells.

The Croatian has only bothered to turn up here once and that was last year when he lost to Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets and he has a poor record at the equally slow Miami Masters too.

Dodig has done nothing to shout about on outdoor hard for a long time and he'll do well to win this match in straight sets, so I'll be laying the 2-0 Dodig win at around 2.40.

Recommended Bet

Lay Dodig 2-0 v Pella at 2.40