Cleveland and Indianapolis peaking as others go into freefall

23Dec 2012

Week 15 was a harsh one for some of the main playoff contenders. Richard O'Hagan looks at what the penultimate week of the regular season has in store...

Remarkably, with just two weeks of the regular NFL to go, half of the playoff slots remain up for grabs and no fewer than 18 of the 32 sides still have a chance to extend their season into January.

In week 15 the news was all about teams falling out of contention. No-one has had a more spectacular fall from grace than the Chicago Bears, who have gone from 7-1 and a sure spot in the post-season to 8-6 as injuries to key players have horribly exposed their lack of strength in depth. On the way up they have been passed by their divisional rivals Minnesota Vikings, who have slipped into the playoff reckoning by virtue of a better record against their NFC North rivals.

But Chicago still have a chance at the post-season. Their last two games should be much easier than Minnesota's, beginning with Sunday's trip to Arizona, who have been awful since the end of September, losing nine straight games and going through three starting quarterbacks in the process. The Vikings, by contrast, have to play Houston and Green Bay. Both teams need to win their last two games to have a chance of a wild card spot. Although they are the shorter price, the 2.1 Bears are the better bet to reach the playoffs.

Their competition for that comes from the NFC East, where three teams are now stuck together at 8-6 after the New York Giants were thrashed 34-0 by Atlanta whilst the Washington Redskins took control of the division by winning under second string quarterback Kirk Cousins, the mercurial Robert Griffin III having failed to recover from the knee injury he sustained the previous week. In the sort of climax the NFL loves - and shamelessly plans the schedule in the hope of achieving - the Redskins finish the season next week against the third team in this footballing ménage-a-trois, the Dallas Cowboys. Assuming that they manage to do what just about everyone else has done this season and saunter past Philadelphia this weekend it will be a heck of a climax to the division and at 2.06 the Redskins are still a fair price to win the NFC East.

The Giants, meanwhile, can take their title defence into January only by winning their remaining games and hoping that one of the other two sides slips up. They will fancy their chances this weekend against a sliding Baltimore side who have lost three straight games. The Ravens are assured of a playoff spot in the AFC but are in disarray. Their terrible recent record is reflected in the fact that they are 2.12 to beat the Giants, even though they still have a superior record and are playing at home.

In the AFC the wild card spots are at the mercy of Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Under Andrew Luck the Colts have now won nine games, which is a record for any first pick quarterback in his rookie season. A win in either of their last two games secures them a spot and they should defeat a feeble Kansas City side who are slugging it out with Jacksonville for bottom spot in the entire NFL.

Sunday's game between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh therefore becomes something of a 'winner takes all' battle. The Steelers hold the seventh spot in the AFC, just outside the playoff places, but could overtake the Bengals by beating them. It is going to be a close game but the crucial factor could be the visitors' speedy AJ Green's match-up against Pittsburgh's ageing and beaten up secondary. Back the Bengals to win at 2.68 and to take advantage of Baltimore's frailties to go on to take the AFC North division at 6.6.