Chelsea vs Liverpool: Back Chelsea to end Reds hoodoo

10Nov 2012

Premier League

Liverpool have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent seasons, but Kevin Hatchard anticipates a shift in momentum at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Liverpool, Sun 16:00 BST, Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Chelsea 2.01, Liverpool 4.2, the draw 3.85

It's fair to say that Stamford Bridge has been a happy hunting ground for Liverpool in recent seasons. Our friends at Opta tell us the Merseysiders have won on three of their last five Premier League visits to Chelsea, losing just once in that period. The Reds also beat Chelsea on their own patch in last season's League Cup. Chelsea's hoodoo isn't restricted to Stamford Bridge - they have lost the last four Premier League games against the men from Anfield, and have won just two of their last 11 league meetings.

Before Chelsea fans start moving the mouse pointer towards the "x" in the corner of the screen, they should note that I actually think the European champions will win on Sunday afternoon, despite the weight of recent statistical evidence.

This is a very different Liverpool set-up to the one that existed under Kenny Dalglish, Roy Hodgson and Rafa Benitez. Some of the players remain, but Brendan Rodgers is trying to implement huge changes in how Liverpool play. That process is starting to bear fruit, but there have been plenty of mishaps along the way.

Liverpool have won just one of their four Premier League away games, and although they played well in their 2-2 derby draw at Everton (and were denied a perfectly good winner) their failure to hang onto a 2-0 lead showed their defensive fragility. Rodgers' men are yet to keep a Premier League clean sheet on their travels, and they have conceded eight goals in four PL away games. Youngsters like Raheem Sterling and Suso are thrilling going forward but won't win many physical battles, and defenders like Jose Enrique and Martin Skrtel have had an alarming tendency to switch off at key moments.

Chelsea have the second-best attack in the division, and I expect them to cause Liverpool plenty of problems. Fernando Torres has a terrible record against his old club (no goals in three PL meetings), but Chelsea have plenty of other offensive options. Juan Mata has been their outstanding player this term, with four goals and five assists in the Premier League alone.

The Blues will also be boosted by the return from suspension of talismanic defender John Terry. In the four games Terry was banned for, Chelsea shipped ten goals. Boss Roberto Di Matteo's decision not to return his skipper to the line-up against Shakhtar Donetsk almost backfired, as Chelsea scraped a 3-2 win. I'd be amazed if Terry is benched again. Ashley Cole is out injured, but Ryan Bertrand is proving to be a capable deputy.

Chelsea's home form this season has been very good, with four wins out of five in the league. The only game they lost was against Manchester United, and that 3-2 reverse was largely down to some poor officiating. That record alone justifies their price of 2.01 for the win.

Liverpool rested a host of key players in midweek, and duly lost 1-0 at Anzhi in the Europa League. Luis Suarez, Steven Gerrard, Joe Allen and Daniel Agger will all be well rested and raring to go. Suarez has been in exceptional form in recent weeks, scoring five goals in his last five league games, and you may be interested to note that he is 2.72 in the To Score market.

Liverpool are still very much a team in transition though, and I think they will find Chelsea's attacking power too much to handle. Even Brendan Rodgers admits his side may struggle to nullify Chelsea's playmakers. Despite Chelsea's poor record in this fixture, it's worth considering that Di Matteo overcame Liverpool in the FA Cup Final, and he has built a thrilling side. I think 2.01 for the Chelsea win is a big price, and it is appears to be based on history rather than the relative strengths of the teams right now.

Recommended Bet: Back Luis Suarez To Score at 2.72

Best Bet: Back Chelsea to win at 2.01