Chelsea v Manchester United: Red Devils too good domestically to oppose

1Apr 2013

FA Cup

Is Rafa Benitez putting FA Cup glory ahead of Champions League qualification? Mike Norman thinks he is and believes Chelsea's inconsistent form will cost them any silverware this season...

Chelsea v Manchester United

Monday 12:30, live on ITV1

It's difficult to understand why Chelsea (or rather Rafa Benitez) would consider that winning the FA Cup, and therefore qualification to the Europa League, is more important than finishing in the top four in the Premier League table. But that's how it seems.

The Blues were at Southampton on Saturday afternoon with Benitez making seven changes to the side that beat West Ham, leaving out - for whatever reason - the likes of David Luiz, Gary Cahill, Ashley Cole, Ramires, Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Demba Ba. They lost the game 2-1 and looked disinterested according to most media sources, a result that heightens the possibility that Chelsea won't qualify for the Champions League next season.

True, Manchester United made changes ahead of their Premier League clash at Sunderland, but the Red Devils are 15 points clear at the top of the table and only a collapse of ginormous proportions would prevent Sir Alex Ferguson's men from winning the title. As it happens, United won.

It's hard not to have some sympathy for Chelsea fans. They have an 'outgoing' manager at the helm who appears to be putting himself ahead of the club; after all, having 'FA Cup winner' on his CV from his tenure at Stamford Bridge reads far better than simply 'scraped into the top four'.

Of course, Benitez and Chelsea might do both, but don't be surprised at all if the former Liverpool boss is deleting the words FA Cup winner form his draft CV come Monday afternoon. United are looking unbeatable domestically, and are in a far better place than Chelsea right now, and at this level that can count volumes.

Match Odds and To Qualify

The fact that Manchester United are outsiders to win the game in 90 minutes (3.0) and to qualify (2.06) is only because this game is being played at the home of Chelsea (2.5 to win in 90 minutes, 1.92 to qualify), but as Opta point out, the Red Devils have won their last two FA Cup games at Stamford Bridge and haven't lost there in this competition since 1950.

There'll be those of you who give no relevance to head-to-head cup form spanning back many years and will instead use current form as a guide. You'll no doubt know then that United are unbeaten in 23 games domestically, winning a staggering 19 of those games including their last six league games without conceding a single goal.

Chelsea on the other hand have lost four times already in 2013, and that fact that three of those losses came against lowly QPR, Newcastle and Southampton inspires no confidence whatsoever ahead of the visit of the champions-elect.

The Blues have also failed to beat Brentford, Reading, and the Saints (as well as losing to them this weekend) since the turn of the year, and with so much uncertainty surrounding the club they simply have to be opposed on Monday.

Head-to-head Goal stats

This is something that I don't normally pay too much attention towards, but the goal stats between these two sides in recent history makes staggering reading, so perhaps they - and the relevant markets - are worth mentioning on this occasion.

For example, from the last 11 meetings between Chelsea and Man Utd in all competitions, 10 of them (91%) resulted in both teams finding the net, and the same number of games resulted in the match ending with three or more goals being scored.

Both teams to Score is available to back at 1.6 ahead of this match, while the Over 2.5 Goals option can be backed at 1.72.

The Over 2.5 Goals stat is strengthened more by the fact that every one of the last seven meetings between these two finished that way, and the last five meetings all ended with at least four goals being scored. Over 3.5 Goals is available to back at 2.72 this time.

If you're looking to take the 'Overs' even higher, then how about the fact that the last five meetings between the Blues and the Red Devils have averaged 5.6 goals per game, and the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have averaged an astonishing seven goals per game. Over 5.5 Goals can be backed at 10.0, while Over 6.5 Goals is available at 23.0.

And just to put a balance on the Over/Under markets, if you believe this game will go completely against the recent trend then you can back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.32 and Under 1.5 Goals at 4.8.

I'm happy to sit on the fence this time however as United are defending so well at present that I can't be confident about Chelsea scoring, so the away team to win and qualify will be my only wagers in this encounter.

Recommended Bets

Back Man Utd To Qualify @ 2.06

Back Man Utd to beat Chelsea @ 3.0