Champions League Opta Stats: Malaga to beat AC Milan

Christian Crowther uses the Opta stats to predict wins for Porto, Malaga and Real Madrid and goals between Montpellier and Olympiacos...

Porto v Dinamo Kiev (Wednesday, 19:45)

Porto have kept clean sheets in their last four Champions League matches

Porto, led by the nimble-footed Joao Moutinho, have already taken charge of Group A with an impressive win over Paris St Germain and their chiefly Brazilian back line  are largely responsible - recording two clean sheets. Next up for the Samba sentries to keep at bay are Dinamo Kiev, who have failed to score in 10 of their last 15  Champions League away games and only mustered six altogether in that time.

 

Montpellier v Olympiakos (Wednesday, 19:45)

Montpellier have won just one of their last 10 matches in European competition

The champions of France have crumbled under expectations this season and currently hover just above the relegation places in Ligue 1, with just two wins from their  opening nine games. Montpellier's main problem is a porous defence which keeps sieving goals, including seven in their last three games. At least they can score them  too though, having only failed to notch in one from a dozen games this season. Conversely, Olympiakos have won all their domestic games so far and have managed to find  the net once in each of their last six in Europe.

 

Malaga v AC Milan (Wednesday, 19:45)

AC Milan have won just one of their last 11 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition (W1 D5 L5)

European colossus AC Milan gave themselves a real chance of qualification with a win against Zenit last time out but there's no masking the fact that this is a poor  team by usual Rossoneri standards. Milan's latest Serie A defeat to Lazio leaves them in 15th place, while Malaga sit third in La Liga with five wins and just one  defeat from eight games. The Spanish side made short work of Zenit in their last home match and with Joaquin hitting such fine form - creating the third most chances  in this season's competition - they should have too much for Milan.

 

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid (Wednesday 19:45)

Dortmund have won none of their last four home games against Spanish opposition (D2 L2) with two draws against Real Madrid in that run

The tie of the round promises to be a cracker with Borussia Dortmund showing what an exciting attacking force they are last time out against Man City. However,  injuries to key players have seen a slump in form of the German champions - winless in three - while Real Madrid's early season wobble has been quickly forgotten with  five wins in their last six matches, the one minor setback being a draw away to Barcelona. With an astonishing ten goals in his last five games, and 14 in his last 11  Champions League appearances, it's difficult to see anyone stopping Cristiano Ronaldo.

 

Recommended Bets:

Back Porto to win to nil at home to Dinamo Kiev @ 2.66

Back both teams to score in Montpellier v Olympiakos @ 1.89

Back Malaga to beat AC Milan @ 2.14

Back Real Madrid to win away to Borussia Dortmund @ 2.22

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet H E R E !

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