Champions League Opta Stats: Dortmund to notch last

 

It's the final instalment of Christian Crowther's Champions League Opta trilogy, where he takes a look at those goal markets and picks three bets...

 

Just one of the last five Champions League finals has gone over 2.5 goals; however, that final was also played at Wembley (Barcelona 3-1 Manchester United in 2011)

Following on from my call of a 1-1 scoreline come the 90-minute peep of the referee's whistle, it was only natural to plump for the under 2.5 goals option. Pleasantly, the price is also hugely favourable to the would-be unders backer and, more important than that, the stats back this bet up beautifully. Of the four meetings between Germany's footballing barons this season, 75% have crawled under the 2.5 mark. The stat-spoiling 2-1 win for Bayern was not only the furthest fixture back, the first game of the whole season in fact, but two of the three subsequent goal-shy encounters also produced that 1-1 finish.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.2

 

Six of the 10 goals that Bayern have conceded in the competition this season have been scored in the final 15 minutes of their matches

There you have it. The so-called greatest club team on terra firma do have a weakness after all, a weakness for conceding late goals. Admittedly, Bayern are usually so far out of sight by that point this season that they can afford the odd consolation strike. However, late goals can be far more perilous than that, especially in this competition as Jupp Heynckes' side found out with agonising consequences last May. With one hand on the trophy, they let Chelsea in the back door in the 88th minute through Didier Drogba and the rest is history. Furthermore, Dortmund have netted last in seven of their last nine tussles with Bayern.

Recommended Bet: Back Borussia Dortmund to score last @ 2.88

 

Over half (12/23 - 52%) of Dortmund's goals in the Champions League this season have come in the middle third of games (30-59 mins)

Having already stuck it on the line by presenting the argument for a 1-1 scoreline and Bayern to lead at half-time, it leaves a few markets left to exploit. If Bayern enter the break in front then their black-and-yellow foes must take the second-half honours to bring the match level. Elementary stuff, but far better value than backing Bayern to win their half. Dortmund's previous two Champions League victories saw them win the second half as well.

Recommended Bet: Back Borussia Dortmund to win a half @ 2.5

 

Bet HERE

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