Cardiff to see-off another promotion rival

12Mar 2013

England - The Championship

With three Championship fixtures this evening involving clubs at the top and bottom of the table we asked regular previewer Mike Norman to recommend a bet in each...

Barnsley 2.98 v Brighton 2.62; The Draw 3.5

It's perhaps not at the stage where we can describe the situation at Barnsley as the wheels have fallen off, but at the very least they have a few punctured tyres.

After an incredible run of results under new boss David Flitcroft (eight wins and a draw from nine league and cup games) The Tykes are now four games without a win having conceded an alarming 14 goals in those games. But can we excuse this most recent form? I say yes, and believe the home side have the ability to beat Brighton this evening.

Despite picking up just one point from their last three league games Barnsley have managed to score six goals, so it can be argued that their recent dip in form defensively is down to having one eye on the FA Cup. And let's face it, losing by a big margin at Manchester City was always on the cards.

Opta tell us that Flitcroft's men have scored in each of their last 13 league games, the current longest sequence in the Championship, and that has to be encouraging against a side that hasn't scored in each of their last two away games.

Ture, Brighton don't concede many either, so a low-scoring game is on the cards, and one in which a single goal might pinch it for Barnsley.

Recommended Bet: Back Barnsley to win @ 2.98

Cardiff 2.24 v Leicester 3.75; The Draw 3.45

My tale of woe continues with Cardiff. To think that they haven't won a single game when I've recommended them against Brighton, Derby, Huddersfield, Ipswich, and Middlesbrough is staggering, especially given they've won 22 of their other 30 league games.

But I'm assessing this game on merit rather than let any 'bogey-team' jinx affect me, and I believe The Bluebirds are an excellent price to beat out-of-form Leicester.

Malky Mackay's men are far from in brilliant form themselves but they remain rock solid at home having picked up 41 from a possible 51 points available to them at the Cardiff City Stadium. In those 17 games they've conceded just 12 goals, and they've defeated all of the top sides on home soil this term (Hull, Middlesbrough, Watford, Crystal Palace, Leeds etc) suggesting they are always up for the big clashes.

The Foxes have won just one of their last seven games and haven't scored in each of their last two away from home. When you add in the Opta stats that tell us Cardiff have lost just one in eight at home to Leicester, and that Nigel Pearson's men have failed to score in three of their last four visits to Wales, then the a home win looks a cracking bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Cardiff to win @ 2.24 (best bet)

Leeds 1.88 v Peterborough 4.7; The Draw 3.9

With Leeds remaining in outstanding form at Elland Road I'd have expected Neil Warnock's men to be around the 1.6 mark to beat relegation-threatened Peterborough.

Obviously this is the 'unpredictable' Championship, and Peterborough - with wins at Cardiff and Blackburn already this term - have the ability to shock so the layers have probably got the match odds correct. But at those odds I'm all over Leeds to record another victory.

Warnock's men have won eight of their last nine league games on home soil with their only defeat being a narrow one at the hands of league leaders Cardiff. In this time they've recorded wins over high-flyers such as Crystal Palace, Leicester and Middlesbrough, and in the FA Cup they beat Premier League outfit Tottenham.

Perhaps more important however is the Opta stat that tells us Leeds have scored 12 goals in their last four meetings with Peterborough, and they've managed four wins from their last five encounters with tonight's opponents.

Darren Ferguson's men have won just one of their last five league games - that win at Blackburn - and I have a feeling they'll succumb pretty easily to a bang-in-form home side.

Recommended Bet: Back Leeds to win @ 1.88