Capital punishment for Stoke as woes set to continue

19Apr 2013

England - Premier League

With the Premier League bubbling to an exciting climax, Paul Robinson takes an early look at the markets for this coming weekends fixtures. Here are his Fixed Odds selections:

QPR v Stoke

Back QPR @ 2.2 (6/5)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.3 (13/10)

QPR are all but relegated but they will keep fighting to the end and with Stoke in town, they have an ideal opportunity to pick up three points and build some confidence going into next season.

Harry Redknapp hasn't been able to turn things around at Loftus Road and you could make the case that he's made things worse as Rangers are now further from safety than they were when he was appointed. They have shown glimpses of form since his arrival but one point from a possible 12 in recent weeks has left them with too much to do, especially considering that some of the dropped points came against their relegation rivals.

It's just one defeat in six at Loftus Road though, and that came against Manchester United. I should add that it's just one win as well, but they came within a minute of beating Wigan last time out, and they had to play most of that match with 10 men.

Stoke are in real trouble now and for a club who are usually safe by this stage, it will be interesting to see how they react to the pressure of having to pick up points at the business end. With just one win since Boxing Day, The Potters have slipped to 16th place, three points clear of Wigan in 18th, but having played a game more. Villa are in 17th and they are only behind Stoke on goal difference, so it's incredibly tight down there.

Tony Pulis' men fell to a third straight defeat at the Britannia on Sunday and they won't take any solace from the fact that this is an away match as their form on the road is terrible. It's six straight losses for Stoke away from home and they scored just two goals in that period.

On face value, QPR may seem a bit short to win this match at 2.2 (6/5) but I think the pressure will be off them now as they've almost accepted their fate. Stoke on the other hand are in turmoil as they are in real danger of going down, their fans have turned against them and they are dire away from the Britannia.

Under 2.5 goals would seem the obvious play given that these two are the lowest scorers in the entire division, however I think the value is definitely in backing overs at 2.3 (13/10). A draw is no good to either side and I think it could turn out to be one of those end of season thrillers that end up with a cricket score as both sets of players throw caution to the wind and go all out for the win.

Swansea v Southampton

Back Southampton @ 3.1 (21/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (3/4)

Southampton travel to Wales on Saturday for a match with Swansea and I'm backing Mauricio Pochettino's side to continue their recent excellent form and get the win.

Swansea have had a great season but they haven't been the same team since they won the Capital One Cup in February. They beat Newcastle the following weekend, but I watched that game and The Swans were incredibly lucky to win it as The Geordies deserved at least a point. They then went on to lose to West Brom, Arsenal and Spurs - the latter two at home - before earning a draw at Norwich last time out.

Michael Laudrup's men appear to be on the beach to me and while Michu has started scoring again, the creative forces of the side are playing within themselves. The Liberty Stadium had become a bit of a fortress and while defeats to the two North London clubs isn't a disgrace, it will give visiting teams that extra bit of confidence when travelling there.

Southampton are flying right now and the team who were once favourites to go down are now in 12th place, with a top half finish in sight. They are playing some cracking football and Jay Rodriguez has started to justify his price tag following his move from Burnley in the summer.

Rodriguez has scored on his last three starts and after sitting out the West Ham match with illness, he will surely be restored to the first XI on Saturday. The Saints haven't won too many times this season away from home - three to be exact - but they haven't been in this kind of form, and in fairness to them, they've only lost two of their last nine away from St Mary's.

Southampton are a fantastic price at 3.1 (21/10) for my money, as is over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (3/4). Five of Swansea's last seven in the league have had three goals or more as have four of Southampton's last half dozen on the road.

Liverpool v Chelsea

Back Liverpool @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Liverpool to win 2-1 @ 8.0 (7/1)

My final selection this week comes from Anfield as Liverpool host Chelsea, live on Sky Sports One at 16:00. The Reds are the 2.1 (11/10) favourites and I'm backing them to take advantage of tired Chelsea legs.

Liverpool come into this clash on the back of two 0-0 draws. While they didn't do enough against West Ham to deserve victory, they did everything but score at Reading, only for Alex McCarthy to have the performance of his life in goal for The Royals.

Prior to the stalemate with the Hammers at Anfield, Brendan Rodgers' side had won five out of six in front of their own fans. They kept four clean sheets in that period and put three goals past Spurs and Sunderland, four past Fulham and five past both Norwich and Swansea.

The Spurs victory broke their hoodoo of not beating a top side this season but in fairness to The Reds, they have performed excellently against most of the 'big boys' under Rodgers.

Chelsea shrugged off three straight away league losses on Wednesday by thrashing Fulham 3-0 at the Cottage. Fulham put in a lethargic performance though and The Blues will have to dig a lot deeper on Sunday.

Juan Mata played 81 minutes in that match and Eden Hazard also started, so it will be interesting to see if Rafa Benitez plays them both against Liverpool, especially considering that they have a big Europa League semi-final at Basel on Thursday. Chelsea are of course in a four way battle for the final two remaining Champions League places so Rafa won't be allowed to rotate too much, but they've played so many games recently that something's got to give sooner or later.

I just can't see Liverpool not winning this game, all things considered. Odds-against is a decent price and if you fancy a correct score, then 2-1 at 8.0 (7/1) looks the best bet to me.

Recommended Bets

Back QPR @ 2.2 (6/5)

Back Over 2.5 goals in QPR v Stoke @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back Southampton @ 3.1 (21/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals in Swansea v Southampton @ 1.75 (3/4)

Back Liverpool @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Liverpool to win 2-1 @ 8.0 (7/1)

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.