Capital One Cup Final: Five reasons to believe in Bradford

22Feb 2013

England - Capital One Cup

League Two tipster Ian Lamont takes an early look at five reasons Bradford can win the Capital One Cup Final. He picks out some pointers on the way to his ultimate bet of penalties.

Bradford 9.6 v Swansea 1.44 The Draw 4.88

Bradford must keep it tight

A gambling mate was surprised that Bradford were as big as 9.6 to beat Swansea (in 90 minutes) in the Capital One Cup final or 6.0 in the winner market. Surely either he had forgotten the Bantams play in League Two or was underestimating Swansea? He was swift to point out that cup football is full of upsets, including the final such as when Birmingham beat Arsenal two years ago. For most people this final is a tall order for Bradford, despite beating Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa (over two legs) already.

This is a final, a one-off for Swansea as much as the Yorkshire side. It is hardly surprising that 'Any Unquoted' is shortest at 5.4 in the correct score market. If Phil Parkinson's men were to prevail in 90 minutes, it would surely have to be by the tightest of margins, the 1-0 standing out at 24.0. Scoring twice against Swansea might prove a tall order, but once it gives them a chance of getting to my ultimate goal for them of penalties. It's either both teams to score at 2.0 or under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Bet

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.12

No reason for Bradford to be overawed

Unlike many League Two clubs, Bradford play at home in a stadium that would be the pride of any Championship club. Their average home attendances this season are just over 10,000 - better than all but three in League One. They have been hovering around the five figure mark for the six seasons they have been at that level. That makes them the consistently best supported club in the fourth tier by three or four thousand. Effectively they are a big fish in their own league, even if they have not made the most of that potential.

This season, however, they were eyeing a top three automatic promotion berth until their League Cup campaign became really serious against Wigan. Swansea, of course, play in front of huge crowds by comparison every week, the point is Bradford do not have the mentality of "minnows".

Their indifferent form looked like being over when they thumped Wycombe 3-0 away last midweek. But they let a winning position slip against AFC Wimbledon last weekend. Their team selections, though, had an element of protectionism with top scorer Nakhi Wells (18 goals) and preferred strike partner James Hanson on the bench. It gave others the chance to play and score (Garry Thompson, Nathan Doyle) and demonstrate to Parkinson some strengths in reserve. Wells tempts to score at any time.

Set pieces

Managers talk about set-piece plays as if they are some sort of Holy Grail. You can certainly practice them, minimising damage defensively, then profiting at the other end. All Bradford's goals against Arsenal and Aston Villa came either from set-pieces directly or from the follow-up - Rory McArdle is typical of a centre-back who looks to profit from a corner via heading in.

Looking at Bradford's corner record against their previous Premiership opponents, they actually only came close to matching Aston Villa (losing 6-5 and 9-8). Wigan and Arsenal went to double figures on their own. In their last four league games, Bradford have won the corners bet against their opponents three times and drawn once. Only once has the total corner count fallen to 10.

Returning players

The corner count should be boosted by the return from injury of Kyel Reid. His persistence and trickery is sure to earn free-kicks for those headed goal attempts, and corners. Wembley's wide arena should suit him. His return from injury is tried and tested. He starred at Wycombe as he completed back-to-back games for the first time since injury struck in October, which is great for Bradford as his absence seems to have coincided with the team's dip in league form.

Bradford will need all their guile and experience. While Andrew Davies has returned, also after injury in October, fellow defender Rory McArdle is having twice-a-day treatment in a battle to be fit. Don't forget the replacements, either. If Alan Connell is on the bench and replaces Wells, don't give up on the Bantams. He has as many goals as a substitute recently as when starting. McArdle, if he starts, might be another for consideration in the to score market.

Penalties

Leaving the best till last, the Bantams have won an English history-making nine straight penalty shoot-outs, the last in the quarter-finals against Arsenal which was their fourth penalty shoot-out victory of the season. Goalkeepers Matt Duke and Jon McLaughlan have each been in goal for two this season so, if one had to replace the other there would be no reason for a drop in confidence.