Cape Verde set to spring upset

James Eastham believes the hosts will struggle to make a winning start as the tournament gets under way on Saturday afternoon...

 

 

South Africa v Cape Verde

Live on ITV4 & Eurosport, 16:00 GMT, Match Odds: South Africa 1.61, Cape Verde 5.8, The Draw 3.8

 

Three years after going out of the World Cup in the first round despite home advantage, is the same thing set to happen to South Africa again?

 

The Bafana Bafana have landed in a tough group alongside Cape Verde plus Angola and Morocco, so it's hard to see why Gordon Igesund's team are 2.1 favourites to win the pool. Since that 2010 disappointment there has been little improvement: they missed out on the African Cup of Nations finals 12 months ago and may have struggled but for automatic qualification as hosts this time around.

 

This is the first time Cape Verde have qualified for the finals. Their inexperience obviously counts against them but I see Lucio Antunes' side as dangerous outsiders  because they have enviable quality up front. Close followers of French football will know what an outstanding talent Ryan Mendes is. Integrated into the Le Havre youth  system as a teenager, he flourished, becoming one of Ligue 2's most exciting attackers. FC Porto, Benfica and Marseille all tracked him before he completed a €3m move  last August to Lille, where he has adapted effortlessly to Ligue 1.

 

Another Cape Verde striker to watch is Julio Tavares. He moved up to Ligue 2 in France last summer, joining Dijon, and has flourished, scoring six times and displaying  an excellent all-round game for the Burgundy club. Look out for him troubling defenders in this tournament, potentially off the bench.

 

The gulf in quality between the sides is smaller than the prices suggest. For that reason I would consider Cape Verde +1.0 Asian Handicap - with this wager, you'll  make money if the underdogs avoid defeat and get your stakes back even if they lose by a single goal.

 

Lovers of historic trends should consider Over 2.5 Goals at 2.5 or 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at 2.4. Four of the last seven opening games have featured three goals or more, with both teams scoring in five of those seven encounters.

 

 

Angola v Morocco

Live on Eurosport, 19:00 GMT, Match Odds: Angola 3.45, Morocco 2.24, The Draw 3.2

 

Morocco's sheer unpredictability makes this a difficult game to call. On paper, the Atlas Lions are a tremendously talented side, but they regularly fail to live up to  expectations. Their last African Cup of Nations win was 37 years ago, and recent failures cost former boss Eric Gerets his job.

 

Gerets' successor, Rachid Taoussi, has the task of getting the best out of Younes Belhanda, Youssef El Arabi and others, but I've yet to see enough genuine improvement  from Morocco to back them with any confidence. If forced, my selection would be to lay Morocco at 2.26, but I prefer to see how Morocco perform here before backing or opposing them.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: South Africa v Cape Verde Both Teams to Score @ 2.4

Cape Verde +1.0 Asian Handicap @ 1.8

Lay South Africa to win Group A @ 2.18

 

Bet HERE

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