Can Cheltenham make life sticky for Toffees?

7Jan 2013

FA Cup

Ian Lamont looks at Everton's televised Monday night FA Cup tie at League Two Cheltenham and predicts a tighter tie than you might expect between teams separated by three divisions, both of whom are going well

Cheltenham 10 Everton 1.35, Draw 5.7 ESPN Monday 19:45 GMT

One punter survey I read said the most popular choice for FA Cup winner was Everton at 12.0. They are seventh favourites, but that is not a bad shout for a side who made the semi-finals last year and the final in 2009 and who graft well and are hard to beat. I've never really pictured them as a flair side and they seem just the sort of side who can eke out tight results. Indeed, their last 11 games have finished either 1-1 or 2-1. The suggestion of a trip to Wembley would imply that victory at Cheltenham in their FA Cup third round tie was a formality. Such thoughts are dangerous in the FA Cup, of course. Laying the Toffees would require belief that Cheltenham were capable of putting up a fight. Mark Yates' men have traded at 12.4 for this match alone.

Perhaps, like my plan with Cheltenham as favourites in the last round, laying Everton to back in play if the game stays level for a decent amount of time could give cashout possibilities. What have the Robins got to offer? One player to watch is Jermaine McGlashan. The club's FA Cup run last season helped fund the tricky winger's move from Aldershot and this is a great platform for a player who was playing Step 8 football just three seasons ago. Marlon Pack also packs a punch in midfield. He hit a long-range goal in the play-off semi-finals last season, a campaign in which Cheltenham won at Tranmere in the cup. Cheltenham have League Two's best home record and have not been beaten there, apart from in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, since September. They have also conceded the fewest goals at home in their division, but have not exactly set the scoring charts alight for a team so well placed - a bit like Everton.

Top scorer Chris Zebroski's release by mutual consent might seem unfortunate timing, but he has a chequered personal history. More revealingly about the Robins perhaps is the fact he only had five goals, as did fellow joint leading scorers Shaun Harrad and midfielder Darren Carter. Likewise, Everton have nobody you would be certain to think would score. Marouane Fellaini is their most prominent, with eight and is certainly someone Steve Elliott, who might have to mark him, expects to give him an awkward time. Second top scorer is Nikica Jelavic, but neither have scored in six matches. Take your pick of which to lay in the first scorer market Fallani at 5.5 or Jelavic at 4.5.

All of a sudden the two teams have reasonably similar traits, despite what you would expect to be a gulf in quality. Will Everton take the chance to let rip from their usual tight scorelines and net freely, as they did winning 5-1 at Scunthorpe two years ago, scoring twice before half-time? I am not convinced. Suddenly a correct score of 9.4 on a 2-1 Everton win starts to have some appeal. While the shortest correct score quote is 5.3 on "any unquoted" (one side would have to score four times), the hosts certainly look a stiffer prospect than Scunthorpe who were struggling. The short price on "any unquoted" is at odds with just 1.7 for over 2.5 goals. The value I feel is with over 3.5 goals at 2.68. Cheltenham could well hold off Everton from scoring four. Layers are also convinced Cheltenham can score as "Everton clean sheet no" is 1.84. All that combines to make me think 12.5 is a good price on a 3-1 Everton win in the correct score market.

Recommended bets:

Lay Everton at 1.35 with a view to cashing out 'in play'

Back Everton to win 3-1 in the correct score market @ 12.5

Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.68

Back Everton to win the FA Cup @ 12.0