Can Brentford keep Chelsea at bay?

27Jan 2013

FA Cup

European champions and FA Cup holders Chelsea head across west London to Brentford on Sunday, and Alan Dudman assesses their chances against one of the best teams in League One...

Brentford v Chelsea, FA Cup Fourth Round, Sunday 12:00 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Brentford 13.0 v Chelsea 1.29, the draw 6.4

A good week to bury bad news? Apparently something happened with a ballboy at Swansea on Wednesday night, and if you missed it, don't worry - the incident is still being drip-fed days later. As dramatic as the headlines were, the real story was Chelsea's awful display during that Capital One Cup semi-final second-leg.

If this was a Premier League game, layers would be looking to get at the Blues, who in 180 minutes of football against Michael Laudrup's team created four chances, and manager Rafael Benitez faces yet another test of his short, unpopular reign for this weekend's FA Cup fourth round clash at Brentford.

The only time the two west London clubs have met in the world's oldest cup competition was in 1950, a game in which Chelsea won 1-0 and no ballboys were harmed.

The Premier League outfit have a terrific recent record in the FA Cup, winning the trophy in 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012 and are currently 6.2 in the winner market for another success. If you fancy Brentford pulling off a 'Bradford', they can be backed at 810.0.

For the money buyers, Chelsea's price of 1.29 is backed up by some ultra-impressive stats from Opta. The Blues have won 15 of their last 16 FA Cup fourth round ties, and have lost only one of their last 35 matches in the competition outright. Brentford's pedigree meanwhile is wafer thin - they reached the last 16 of the tournament in 2006.

Brentford boss Uwe Rosler has insisted this week the pressure will all be on Benitez's side, as his young team have nothing to lose. The European champions were chasing seven trophies at the start of the season - it is now just two, with the other being the Premier League.

Although Benitez keeps tinkering his players, his formation should be looked at for Sunday's clash, and surely he should play two up front. Fernando Torres was dropped in favour of new signing Demba Ba on Wednesday night, but the lack of service was a big problem. As exciting as the trio of Oscar, Juan Mata and Eden Hazard are, they cut inside too often and their final ball to Ba was lacking at Swansea.

Chelsea will have lots of the possession for this game, but were looking too predictable against Swansea. Admittedly, their opponents on Sunday are miles behind the Welsh club, but the League One side might be up to the task of frustrating and they will no doubt be pinned back for long periods. I think Benitez is missing the role of John Obi Mikel, and the width of Victor Moses.

At least the big spending giants have been better away from Stamford Bridge. They have won seven of their 11 games in the Premier League on their travels, and face a Brentford side who are going great guns in League One. They are two defeats in their last 21 in all competitions, and have lost just twice at Griffin Park this term. The Bees were taken to a replay by their third round opponents Southend, and their manager Paul Sturrock described the Londoners as a terrific team.

Brentford have some terrific young talent in their squad, with the headline act being Harry Forrester. The 22-year-old has most certainly got star quality, and is now being courted by several top flight clubs including Aston Villa - ironic considering he was released by the Midlanders 18 months ago. The midfielder is very creative and quite technical, and has enjoyed a three-week trial at Ajax.

The Bees also have young forward Marcello Trotta on loan from Fuham, who has hit three goals since November and five assists. Their 19-year-old Everton loanee Jake Bidwell has done well at left-back this season, but he is suspended following a red card against Leyton Orient. Up front, Clayton Donaldson offers a physical threat with plenty of pace.

Rosler's plans for the game have been outlined already: "We want to be competitive and make it difficult for them. We will attack when we have the ball in the right areas. Collectively we want to make it difficult for them." Which is why I am looking at more action in the second-half.

In terms of a correct score trade, the 0-0 will not drop as rapidly as it would for a more evenly matched encounter. I would chance a small bet on the match being goalless to around 40 minutes, with the ability to get out just before half-time. That could be used in a potential cover bet for the half-time/full-time market - in which the Draw/Chelsea trades at 4.80. In trying to squeeze more out of a Chelsea victory rather than the outright odds, less adventurous would be the Chelsea to win to nil price at 1.76.

Opta stats are very positive regarding Juan Mata and Frank Lampard's scoring abilities. The former has scored four goals and assisted five in just eight starts in the FA Cup for Chelsea, whilst Lampard has scored six in his last nine FA Cup appearances. With the Blues needing to win some silverware, I am hoping (and presuming) both start this Sunday.

Recommended bets:

Back D Ba/Chelsea @ 3.75 and F Lampard/Chelsea @ 6.6 in Wincast market

Back Draw/Chelsea in HT/FT @ 4.8

Back Chelsea to win 0-2 @ 7.0