Burnley v Cardiff: Unders is the call at Turf Moor

20Apr 2013

England - The Championship

Regardless of whether Cardiff have been crowned champions or not, goals are likely to be at a premium, says Andy Tongue...

Burnley v Cardiff

Saturday 20 April

12.45 GMT

Live on Sky Sports 2

Burnley

54 points would normally be enough for Sean Dyche to start planning for next season but alarm bells will be starting to ring at Turf Moor after Tuesday's 1-0 defeat at Leeds, which leaves his side still needing at least four more points to be certain of safety in this extraordinary season in the second tier.

Just one win from the last eight has seen them lose form at the wrong time of the season. What makes the situation more worrying for the Clarets is that Charlie Austin is out for the rest of the season after undergoing emergency surgery to have his appendix removed earlier this week after falling ill during training. His 25 goals are the reason they are not mired even deeper in the relegation battle - nobody else has managed more than six.

Cardiff

Despite the odd stumble and some understandable nerves over the past month, the Bluebirds found that red was their lucky colour as, after leading the Championship since November 24, the point at home to Charlton on Tuesday, combined with defeats for their nearest pursuers Hull and Watford, meant that promotion is assured and they stand on the verge of winning the title. Their home form has remained strong but they aren't quite the same force on their travels as recent defeats at Middlesbrough and Peterborough will testify.

Match Odds

Whether Cardiff have woken up as newly crowned champions will naturally have a big effect on our betting strategy. If Hull fail to beat Bristol City the previous evening the trophy is heading to South Wales and we can expect Malky MacKay's men to be lacking some sort of focus (even if they have refrained from hitting their hotel bar to celebrate the night before!). If Hull have won then Cardiff would still need three points to wrap up the title. In those circumstances they'd be happy with a point here and the chance to wrap things up in front of their own fans at home to Bolton next week. Dyche would also consider the result an important step closer to survival so we'd back the draw at 3.5.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

Without Austin the home side struggle for goals and Cardiff haven't found the net in two of their last four games so whatever the outcome of the Hull match, you can back under 2.5 goals here with some confidence.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.89