Burkina Faso to blaze through to last eight

 

Sitting top of Group C, The Stallions are a smart bet to get a point at least against Zambia, writes James Eastham.

 

Burkina Faso v Zambia (Tue)

Live on British Eurosport, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Burkina Faso 3.15, Zambia 2.5, The Draw 3.25.

 

Are Burkina Faso the team of the tournament so far?

 

From their stirring and fully deserved injury-time equaliser against Nigeria (1-1) in their opening match to their late flurry of goals to see off a progressive but ultimately limited Ethiopia (4-0), The Stallions are the one side - in a largely underwhelming tournament - that have kept you glued to your screen.

 

With four points from two games they need only a draw to go through to the quarter-finals, and will be confident of getting it in their final group game. Holders Zambia have drawn both their games 1-1, and it would be a shock if they were to do any better than that here. Some of the qualities that drove them towards victory 12 months ago remain intact, but a certain lack of individual flair (compared to Burkina Faso, for whom three-goal leading scorer Alain Traore has been the competition's best player) has held them back.

 

Given how the two sides have played, finding Burkina Faso as underdogs was a surprise. I'm reluctant to back them to win because they need only a point but happy to back them with an Asian Handicap start as they've been the better of these two sides in the opening two rounds of games.

 

Ethiopia v Nigeria (Tue)

Live on British Eurosport 2, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Ethiopia 10.0, Nigeria 1.4, The Draw 4.9

 

I expect an open, entertaining encounter for a couple of reasons.

 

Firstly, the goals count in games involving these two sides has been relatively high in a low-scoring tournament: both teams have scored in Nigeria's two games (1-1 draws against Burkina Faso and Zambia), while Ethiopia also drew 1-1 against Zambia and then lost 4-0 to Burkina Faso, their defence crumbling as they conceded three goals in the final 20 minutes.

 

Then there's the fact both teams have to play to win to secure a spot in the quarter-finals. Nigeria, third with 2pts from their opening two games, would take an enormous risk by relying on results in the other game going their way as the two fixtures kick-off simultaneously. Ethiopia are bottom of Group C with 1pt from their opening two games so need three points to progress.

 

Thirdly, the goals count is generally high in the final round of group games because there's so much at stake. At the last five tournaments, 46% of final group games have featured three goals or more. Group A's final two matches produced seven goals (a 2-2 draw and 2-1 win) on Sunday afternoon.

 

Over 2.5 Goals at 2.06 or 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market at 1.86 are worth considering.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Ethiopia v Nigeria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06

Burkina Faso +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap v Zambia @ 1.85

 

Bet HERE

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