Burkina Faso one upset away

7Feb 2013

African Cup 2013

They saw off holders Zambia and final-four favourites Ghana - do Burkina Faso have anything left for Nigeria?

Expectations are consistently subverted at the African Cup of Nations. Whether it's Ivory Coast's eternal failure to justify favourite billing, Egypt's defiance of the glamour sides in past tournaments then inability to qualify recently or Zambia's unlikely 2012 triumph, the script is rarely followed.

This year, Burkina Faso are providing the most fascinating plot. Though they have qualified for five of the last seven editions, they never survived the group stage and so weren't viewed as a major threat, available to back at triple figures at various points.

Burkina Faso's first victims were Zambia, their goalless draw in Group C's final matchday ensuring the Stallions' progress at the defending champions' expense. They would have won that group too were it not for two late Victor Moses' penalties against Ethiopia in the other game.

They felled Togo in extra time in their quarter-final before last night's penalty shootout success over Ghana, who they trailed before Aristide Bance halted the Black Stars' run of seven goals without reply. The Augsburg man would then convert his team's fourth - and ultimately decisive - spot kick.

Paul Put's men haven't been beaten and, having already caused so many shocks, nobody is willing to dismiss the prospect of another, which is why they are 2.98 to lift the trophy. They face Nigeria, worthy 1.5 favourites after building on victory over Ivory Coast with a 4-1 dismantling of Mali.

After a slow start, Nigeria's Super Eagles have improved immeasurably, a natural trajectory given that coach Stephen Keshi overlooked the likes of Taye Taiwo, Peter Odemwingie, Obafemi Martins and Yakubu in favour of a younger, arguably hungrier, group.

Another element in Nigeria's favour is that Burkina Faso lose the "home-field advantage" of having played all five games to date at the Mbombela Stadium which, as Jonathan Wilson noted, had a poor surface that acted as a leveller. The final is instead at the underused Soccer City in Johannesburg.

Ghana will be fancied to defeat Mali in the third-place play-off as they did in Group B. Mali's poor defensive showing against Nigeria augurs well for Wakaso Mubarak's top goalscorer claims after he scored his fourth goal and third penalty of the finals in the semis. Mubarak's chief rivals are finalists Emmanuel Emenike of Nigeria and Alain Traore of Burkina Faso.