Burkina Faso good enough to ruin Nigeria's big day

10Feb 2013

African Cup 2013

After making a profit on a tournament of upsets, James Eastham recommends backing the outsiders in Sunday's final.

Nigeria v Burkina Faso (Sun)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 19:00 GMT, Match Odds: Nigeria 2.08, Burkina Faso 4.6, The Draw 3.2

It is the final few predicted, and the outcome is difficult to predict.

The most obvious guide to how this game may go is the Group C meeting between the sides on January 21. It was the opening match for both teams, and ended 1-1 as Burkina Faso came from behind against 10-man Nigeria to grab an injury-time equaliser.

There have been ups and downs along the way for both countries since (read more on their progress to the final in Jonathan Wilson's piece here), yet they look as well-matched today as they did during that opening game nearly three weeks ago. For that reason I would rather support Burkina Faso than Nigeria.

The Super Eagles are 2.08 favourites to win in 90 minutes and 1.51 to lift the trophy. Yes, they have momentum going into the game, having thrashed Mali 4-1 in the semi-final. But Burkina Faso had the tougher last-four clash, against tournament favourites Ghana, and you could argue The Stallions have yet to be outplayed in the finals.

Backing Burkina Faso to win in 90 minutes at 4.6 would be speculative but those odds are so big you have the flexibility to support them with some form of Asian Handicap start. That way, you can make money on the underdogs as long as they avoid defeat.

African Cup of Nations finals are notoriously low-scoring affairs. Seven of the last 10 finals have featured under 2.5 goals, with five of those matches - including the last four - all featuring either no goals (in 90 minutes) or one goal.

Nigeria's semi-final may have featured five goals but there's not enough evidence this will be a high-scoring affair. Four of Burkina Faso's five matches have featured under 2.5 goals - and the only one that didn't, a 4-0 win, was against weak opponents, Ethiopia. Scoring opportunities are unlikely to come as cheaply against Nigeria.

The price of 1.54 on under 2.5 goals may hold little appeal but that doesn't mean it's wrong. The 2.72 on over 2.5 goals is likely to draw in more bettors but if the shorter price is too short for you, leave this market alone.

Recommended Bet

Burkina Faso +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.87