Brazil v Russia: Big Phil still searching for the winning formula

25Mar 2013

Betfair

Brazil's world tour of footballing friendlies returns to London and Stamford Bridge where Big Phil will attempt to pick up the first win of his second stint as manager of the Canarinha. South American football expert Ed Malyon gives us the lowdown

Luiz Felipe Scolari is still in search of his first win as Brazil boss, and he's returned to an unhappy hunting ground to try and find it with the hope that beating Russia may banish some of his Stamford Bridge demons.

A short-lived and unsuccessful reign as Chelsea manager will come rushing back to Felipão tonight as he returns to the stadium that brought him so few great memories, but the focus must be on the game with Russia which will provide his charges with another terrific and competitive test - one of few remaining before they're expected to win the Jules Rimet trophy on home soil in 2014.

He arrives in London on the back of a fairly impressive performance against the Italians, albeit with a second-half Azzurri comeback denying him his maiden victory, and there will be a few changes for the game with Russia.

Marcelo will come in at left-back for Filipe Luis, who claimed a noteworthy assist on Thursday evening as Fred put the selecão in front. The two of them will be direct rivals for one slot ahead of the 2014 World Cup, with Porto's talented Alex Sandro behind both in the pecking order. Also restored to the starting line-up will be central defender Thiago Silva, coming back in for Dante as Scolari continues to search for his first-choice defence.

Another player returning is aging playmaker Kaka, who remains a popular figure in Brazil despite his distinct lack of significant activity over the last couple of seasons. An impressive showing for the late games of Mano Menezes' reign has no doubt helped his cause, and he is likely to play behind Fred and between talented whippersnappers Oscar and Neymar.

With what appears to be his first choice back four, Scolari is looking at options further forward - principally in that five-man midfield - and Gremio's Fernando gets another chance this evening despite the many far more obvious alternatives for the most defensive half of their double pivot (Lucas, Romulo, Ralf, Sandro etc).

Ramires' injury means that he won't be in contention to play at his home ground, but in truth Hernanes has a far more varied skillset and should have been considered as a deeper lying playmaker quite some time ago.

Felipão knows that if his side can put in a performance as good as the first half against Italy then they will beat Russia with no problem, and while Fabio Capello is on a good run of results, from their five wins in six only Portugal are of a standard approaching this Brazilian side.

The Russian strength in recent years has been their marauding full-backs forcing teams back, yet the obvious question with Brazil will be whether they continue to bomb on knowing that Neymar will be operating on the flank. Oscar is not a natural wide player and drifts centrally, so with no natural opponent down that flank it could be down the Brazilian right that Russia get most of their joy.

The midfield battle will be tough, with Capello's men boasting some gruff battlers to deal with Brazil's pokey triangle - so the Canarinha will need to dominate possession comfortably if they are to avoid a physical battle in the centre that they would inevitably lose.

Elsewhere, there is little doubt that the notional hosts (Brazil) look a stronger side, and although Russia are in good form they have beaten few teams of great credit in recent months, with Brazil's recent tests make this game a far easier challenge for Scolari and his team.

Brazil (probable): Júlio César, Daniel Alves, Thiago Silva, David Luiz, Marcelo; Fernando, Hernanes, Oscar, Kaká; Neymar and Fred

Match Odds

Brazil are rightful favourites but 1.62 seems too short for backing. The 4.3 draw will surely trade shorter in-play, and therefore seems the obvious choice if one is looking to play the match odds market. There isn't enough statistical support to take Brazil on the handicap, with them 2.64 with a one-goal deficit and having not beaten anyone comfortably since Japan in October.

Goals

Brazil's friendly mish-mash means that results have been up and down, but both teams have scored in their last five games against top 20 sides in the FIFA ranking. Conversely, Russia's games have seen them keep plenty of clean sheets but the aforementioned weak opposition somewhat skews the stats. More relevant might be going back further and assessing the general trend - with four of their last 15 games going under 2.5 goals and providing some backing for the 2.08 unders.

Recommended Bet

Lay-to-back Brazil @ 1.63