Braga too short for tasty Primeira Liga clash

11Feb 2013

Betfair

Pacos Ferreira travel to Braga this evening and the Betfair markets aren't giving them too much hope of picking up a result, however Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune into Betfair Live Video at 20:00 could be in for a surprise.

Zwolle came from a goal down to draw 1-1 with Twente yesterday to end the week with four winners and a shade over a 2pt profit for this column. Hopefully we can improve on that, starting tonight in Portugal.

Braga have dropped to fourth place in the Primeira Liga after winning just one of their last four matches, including two defeats. The loss at home to Benfica can probably be excused but the 3-2 defeat at Nacional and the 3-3 draw with the relegation threatened Beira-Mar were poor results.

José Peseiro's side also disappointed in the Champions League this term; finishing bottom of their group after losing five of their six fixtures. They were knocked out of the Taca de Portugal by Vitória Guimarães and while they are through to the semi-finals of the Taca da Liga, their nemesis Benfcia await them.

The Archbishops have lost two of their last five at home in the league and they drew 4-4 with Olhanense back in October. A further stat worth mentioning is that they haven't beaten tonight's opponents in either of their last two meetings and have won just one of the last half dozen.

Pacos Ferreira are having a cracking season under Paulo Fonseca and last year's 10th placed finishers are riding high in third, one point ahead of Braga. They have lost just two matches all season and they were against Porto and Benfica.

Away from their home of Estádio da Mata Real, the Beavers have avoided defeat in eight of their nine league games thus far, with victories coming at Beira-Mar, Gil Vicente, Sporting Lisbon and Moreirense. They kept a hugely impressive six clean sheets in that period and scored 13 goals themselves.

It appears that Pacos de Ferreira are still being underestimated by the markets as there is no way that Braga should be as low as 1.76 on current form, and that's why I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Braga v Pacos Ferreira @ 1.76