Boxing Betting: Back Lamont Peterson to outpoint the explosive Lucas Matthysse

16May 2013

Betfair

Alex Reid thinks Lamont Peterson will need to be wary of Lucas Matthysse's heavy hands, but thinks the man from Washington, D.C. can emerge victorious on the judges' scorecards...

'Styles make fights' is one of the most oft-repeated boxing adages, but it's not one that Britain's Lee Purdy will draw much comfort from as he tries to shock IBF welterweight title-holder Devon Alexander in Atlantic City on May 17th. The Essex banger received his surprise chance due to yet another injury delay denying us the chance to see Sheffield's Kell Brook tested at the highest level.

The problem is that the 25-year-old Purdy hasn't even proved himself the cream of the crop in domestic circles. It's only five fights back that he was losing to the likes of Colin Lynes, although he's stopped four in a row since that decision defeat, his record now standing at 20 wins in 24 fights (three losses, one draw).

Purdy is a tenacious fighter with good power; handy tools for an underdog to have. Unfortunately, the American he's up against has exactly the wrong style to be caught out by Purdy's bombs. The 26-year-old Alexander is a slick, speedy southpaw who's comfortable fighting off the back foot. He has bags of natural ability and, while he sometimes flatters to deceive and drifts unspectacularly through fights, he's lost only once in 25 fights (to Tim Bradley in a unification fight).

The odds on Purdy are long for a two-horse race, but given how the pair match-up, it's very difficult to make a case for an upset victory. That's not the case in the card's main event, however, where I think the odds are surprisingly lopsided.

Going back to that old adage and it's stylistically understandable why Lucas Matthysse starts as a favourite against controversial Amir Khan-conquering Lamont Peterson. Matthysse is one of the heaviest-handed fighters in boxing, while Peterson tends to fight in an aggressive, pressurising style. The consensus opinion is that this suits his Argentinean opponent down to the ground; most envision Peterson walking onto Matthysse's chopping right hands and uppercuts, then finding himself hurt and on the canvas.

It makes sense, especially as the 29-year-old Peterson is the smaller man and, while never stopped, he's been knocked down by Tim Bradley, Victor Ortiz and Amir Khan. Still, I get the feeling Matthysse is being ever so slightly overrated. The 30-year-old is a strong, solid boxer with good fundamentals and should arguably be undefeated. His only two losses came in disputed, split-decision defeats against Zab Judah and the aforementioned Alexander.

However, he's a tad one-paced and one-dimensional. Peterson has edges in speed and punch output. If - and it's a pretty whopping if - he can avoid the majority of Matthysse's power punches (and handle those that will inevitably land at some point), he has the workrate to outlast Matthysse. It's a high-wire act without a net, as Matthysse's record of 31 knockouts in 35 pro fights chillingly illustrate. But if the all-action Peterson can box to his maximum, there's a good chance he can sneak a decision, even if he has to climb off the canvas in order to do it.

Recommended Bet: Lucas Matthysse against Lamont Peterson looks an evenly matched fight to me. So I'd say the odds on Peterson to win on points are currently too long at 4.4. There's always the danger that Matthysse can render that foolish with one powerful blow, but Peterson has shown a survivor's heart in the past and so I'll be backing him to get the decision.