Boxing Betting: Back Devon Alexander to have far too much for Lee Purdy

16May 2013

Betfair

Lee Purdy should be applauded for stepping in and taking the Devon Alexander fight, says Alex Steedman, but that doesn't mean he'll win...

Every boxer who takes up the sport dreams of winning a world title. The good ones work steadily towards that goal until the time is right but sometimes luck plays a part and opportunity knocks. That's been the case for Lee Purdy who will be hoping that fortune also favours the brave.

It should've been Kell Brook squaring off against IBF champion Devon Alexander but Brook's injury cast that bout aside for the third time leaving Alexander in need of an opponent. Step forward the enterprising Eddie Hearn and the always willing Purdy to fill the void. This isn't quite Rocky Balboa taking on Apollo Creed but it's not far off.

Let's get it right, Purdy isn't a club fighter who eats raw eggs but he's not a world champion in waiting either. Put simply, this is an opportunity Purdy wouldn't have expected and couldn't refuse but most boxing fans and punters realise this is an assignment as difficult as it is unlikely. Stable-mate Gareth Rees was in a similar position when facing mission impossible against budding superstar Adrian Broner recently; Alexander isn't that good but the gap in class could be as wide.

All of which is unfortunate in a way for an honest and improving fighter like Purdy who might have worked his way into this situation anyway. Ironically, Purdy had endured a series of cancellations with Carson Jones (who gave Brook hell last year) which would have put him a step closer to this scenario. I've been quietly impressed by Purdy who has developed the punch to go with his aggressive, fan-friendly style. But I've said before in this column that I think it's a style which will only take Purdy so far. In terms of ability, this is plenty far enough.

Alexander is good, he's won world titles at two different weights but he's also extremely fast and that's a dangerous combination for a front-foot fighter like Purdy. The St Louis man has been in against champions or former champs in each of his last seven outings, only the classy, tough-nut Timothy Bradley has beaten him during that run. That includes wins over Argentinian hard men Lucas Matthysse and Marcos Maidana who gave Amir Khan such a roller-coaster night. Purdy is working his way toward fringe world class but Alexander has been there for a while if not among the elite.

Purdy fans will be banking on Alexander underestimating their man or hoping that Purdy can get close and land a big punch, both of which are possible but unlikely. Alexander has survived and beaten bigger punchers and better men than Purdy so this would be as big a shock as any in recent years. Harsh critics would say Alexander has appeared 'flaky' at times but not at this level, it simply shouldn't come into the argument. The question for punters here is how long Purdy lasts and can he push Alexander at least all the way?

The champion has been the distance in four of his last five fights and can be safety first as witnessed by the dull, points win over the reluctant Randall Bailey last October, so there is hope for those that fancy DEC/TD 2.62 as method of victory. But Alexander has been ruthless on occasion in the past when circumstance or opponents allow and that looks the case here. Junior Witter (who beat Colin Lynes) was halted in eight, as was Juan Urango who fans will remember going 12 rounds with Ricky Hatton. Urango, like Purdy, is a strong, aggressive fighter and he was unhinged by an uppercut in spectacular fashion. I see that sort of fight and that sort of finish unfolding here. If there is an angle in it might be to look at round betting rounds six through nine.

I'm told that promoters Goldenboy desire an Alexander v Amir Khan bout in December and if Khan wins he gets the Charlie Bucket ticket to face Mayweather next May. So as ever there is a lot riding on this for Alexander and pressure with it but there is massive incentive, financial and otherwise, too. I don't expect any mistakes from Alexander and I don't think the likeable Purdy is good enough to ask those questions anyway. Alexander should look good winning here and he'd be favoured to beat another Brit in Khan down the line too.