Boxing Betting: Back Amir Khan to have too much for Julio Diaz

25Apr 2013

Betfair

Boxing expert Alex Steedman is backing Amir Khan to get back to winning ways on home turf against Julio Diaz...

Not many have followed The Beatles in conquering America and despite several thrill-a-minute attempts Amir Khan couldn't quite pull it off either. Having lost two high profile fights stateside, the boy from Bolton is returning home to rebuild his career once again.

Khan's one round demolition at the hands of Breidis Prescott in 2008 had seemed a long time ago with the controversy over refereeing, judging and drugs surrounding his defeat to Lamont Peterson in late 2011 seemingly an unfortunate blip. But the manner in which Khan was hammered by previously unheralded Danny Garcia last summer has forced a rethink, change in personnel as well as a new office, at least for the time being. Khan is home, is he back or better?

Certainly Amir looked a little more disciplined through his comeback win against previously unbeaten Carlos Molina in December, his first under the guidance of Andre Ward's trainer Virgil Hunter. But Molina wasn't in Khan's league and there were signs he's still wide open for the left hook, Danny Garcia's signature punch. Khan and Hunter have had 6 months since to iron out the creases as well as develop some much needed defensive skills. This is a fight Khan 1.12 should and must win but it's more important how he looks doing it and what he has learned in the meantime.

Opponent Julio Diaz 7.6 is no mug and he showed enough of the fire still burns in the belly when unfortunate to draw with unbeaten prospect Shawn Porter in December. A world champion at lightweight some six years ago, Diaz has been in with and lost to A-list fighters like Jose Luis Castillo and Juan Diaz so he won't be fazed by Khan but he shouldn't be good enough to beat him either. Diaz has responded with a couple of stoppage wins since beaten in three by puncher Kendall Holt last year and is a decent, credible but beatable opponent for Khan.

This match reminds me a little of Ricky Hatton's bout against Juan Lazcano a few years ago in that it should and probably will result in a comfortable win but there could be moments of struggle. Unlike Hatton though, Khan has the style to make this relatively easy. Remember, Amir made Garcia look unworthy for the first two rounds until he was caught and that could be more pronounced here. Khan is nearly the fastest fighter on the planet but he's not a puncher. When that eventually sinks in he can set about employing the tactics which will make him very difficult to beat in most fights. That has to be the remit from the outset.

As we saw against Molina, Khan is very fast and accurate but he's not a big puncher. Molina took a shelling and still stood up before being rescued late on. Given that, along with Khan's defensive, tactical development, I think this is likely to go some rounds. Khan has the ability to stop opponents he is levels above and that might be the case here but it will be late on, if at all and for me more likely to be decided on points.

This year is a significant one for Khan as he rehabilitates himself and his career but the future is looking bright, if he keeps winning. Promoters Goldenboy have set up a mini-tournament at 140lbs which includes old foe Garcia fighting Zab Judah on the same night Khan boxes and Lamont Peterson who faces off with Lucas Matthyse on May 18th. The idea is that the winners of those bouts meet in a semi-final and the victor meets Khan in a winner-takes-all scrap to decide the division's king late in 2013 or early 2014. Khan needs time out for Ramadan hence he gets a bye to the final which no doubt will further fuel the fire between he and Danny Garcia and that would be the natural storyline to climax and conclude the series.

The irony is that Khan has been a fan-friendly fighter in watchable events but if he is to realise his ambitions he must curb that natural urge. Khan's ultimate target Floyd Mayweather Jr hasn't been the most attractive fighter to watch in recent years but he's the most skilled, most watched and highest paid. Khan should take the hint, starting with this Diaz fight and take it from there. I hope skill and savvy, not fireworks are the order of the day.

Recommended Bet

Back Amir Khan to win by DEC/TD @ 1.71