Both teams should score in Milan as Mario makes his debut

2Feb 2013

Serie A 2010/11

It's Mario Balotelli's debut weekend back in Serie A with Milan. Dave Farrar takes us through his pick of the action.

Milan v Udinese

We'll have to wait for Sunday night for the photo opportunity that the whole of Italian Football has been waiting for: at some point during the evening, we're bound to see Mario Balotelli back in Serie A, and the jury is out as to just how much of a coup this represents for Milan. For what it's worth, my own opinion is simple: Milan needed reinforcing, and needed a statement signing too. But Balotelli represents a huge risk.

We're constantly told just how talented Mario is, and yet we rarely see this ability materialise into anything tangible. He scored 20 goals in 59 games for Inter, and 20 in 54 for Manchester City. He was brilliant in the Euro 2012 semi final against Germany, and yet average for much of the rest of the tournament. He can win you a match, but then spend plenty more looking entirely anonymous. He is much talked about, but Milan need to see some walking to justify their huge financial outlay. My other concern is the impact that Balotelli's arrival may have on the man who has carried Milan on his shoulders this season. Will the brilliant Stephen El Sharaawy be overshadowed, and will his game be affected? I hope not, for his and Milan's sake.

Balotelli could have chosen easier opponents for his Milan debut. Udinese have been in good form lately, and will relish the role of counter attacking underdogs. And these days they're not wholly reliant on Antonio Di Natale, with the Colombian Luis Muriel showing excellent form in front of goal, with four in his last eight matches. Udinese have won three of their last four matches, and are priced at a big looking 6.8 to beat Milan. This is likely to be entertaining, with both sides having clever forward lines and weak defences, and so I'm happy to back Both Teams to Score at close to even money, and rather than lay Milan at 1.6, or back the draw at 4.2 (both of which are attractive options), I'll take a stab a bigger price. Udinese have drawn four games 2-2 this season, and while that scoreline would deflate the Balotelli balloon somewhat, it's far more likely than the odds of 23.0 would suggest.

Recommended Bets

Back Both Teams to Score in Milan v Udinese @ 1.89

Back 2-2 in Milan v Udinese @ 23.0

Torino v Sampdoria

Torino are one of the form teams in Serie A, and showed why with last week's performance against Inter at San Siro. Giampiero Ventura's side were sensational, and desperately unlucky not to get all three points. They haven't been beaten since the 9th December, and they welcome a Sampdoria side who will have been boosted by a 6-0 win over Pescara, but who may soon be facing the reality of a relegation fight. Torino are 2.24 for the win, and given that they've won their last two home games despite injuries and suspensions, a near full strength squad should be a little bit shorter than that. Riccardo Meggiorini scored twice last week, the first time that he has EVER managed that in a Serie A match, and his all round display proves that Rolando Bianchi has a genuine strike partner.

Samp may have won famously in Turin against Juve a couple of weeks ago, and it may seem like folly to oppose a team which has just won 6-0, but my feeling about last week's hero Mauro Icardi is that he is a flat track bully with much to prove, and when confronted by Torino's formidable backline is likely to shrink. Samp are also missing their best player, the fearsome central midfielder Pedro Obiang, and that will give Torino the edge in that area of the field. Torino look like a club which is going places, and for all their occasional brilliance, Samp look like relegation candidates. I'm with Torino all the way in the early Saturday kick off.

Recommended Bet

Back Torino to beat Sampdoria @ 2.24

Fiorentina v Parma

Fiorentina's season has been derailed a little in 2013, and Vincenzo Montella's promising side needs to stop the rot to halt their slide down the table. La Viola are still only four points behind a shaky Inter in 4th place, and the Champions League spots are far from out of reach.

Fiorentina have been a little unfortunate, and have looked shaky in front of goal, but they're likely to get their confidence back in that area of the field with a home game against Parma. I'm not interested in backing Fiorentina for the win at 1.77, as that seems a little short to me, but with Both Teams to Score trading at around 1.94, there is value to be had in the game. The last time that both teams didn't score in a Parma game was the 26th November, and the last time that this didn't happen in a Parma away game was on November 4th. Parma are strong at home, weak away, and always defensively suspect.

You get the feeling that they should be a little higher in the table than 10th, and they would be if they could get out of the habit of conceding in pretty much every game. I don't think that this tendency will stop in Florence, and so, quite simply, Both Teams to Score is the selection.

Finally, there might well be a goal or two around in Serie A this weekend, and I'm going to chance a Both Teams to Score Acca. So, along with Milan v Udinese and Fiorentina v Parma, add in Napoli v Catania and Roma v Cagliari and we might just be celebrating a decent profit. That combination is currently around 10.0.