Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City: City to suffer one last Euro blow

4Dec 2012

Bajnokok Ligája

Manchester City need a win in Germany to maintain their hopes of Europa League qualification, but Kevin Hatchard suspects their European misery will continue.

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City, Tue 19:45 BST, Live on Sky Sports 2

Match Odds: Dortmund 2.14, Man City 3.5, the draw 3.9

At the start of the group stage, few would have envisaged Borussia Dortmund winning this classic "Group of Death" with a game to spare. Jurgen Klopp's men may have stuttered domestically, but they have been outstanding in the Champions League. BVB beat Ajax twice, took four points off Real Madrid (they nearly took six), and they were robbed in a 1-1 draw at Manchester City. Only a harshly-awarded late penalty and a stupendous display by City keeper Joe Hart denied the boys from the Ruhr victory at the Etihad.

While BVB have been savouring the sweet smell of success, Manchester City have been stinking the place out. The English champions have drawn three Champions League games and lost two, and they must win at Signal Iduna Park to have any chance of qualifying for the Europa League. A gigantic clash with Premier League title rivals Manchester United is looming on the horizon, so it's hard to see City boss Roberto Mancini fielding his strongest side. Dynamic midfielder Yaya Toure is suspended, while injury is likely to keep out both Gael Clichy and Aleksandar Kolarov.

It's rare to see Dortmund priced as big as 2.14 for a home win, and it's an attractive price for several reasons. Dortmund completely outplayed City at the Etihad, and City are likely to select a weaker team this time around. Although BVB have already won the group, the indications are that attacking stars Mario Gotze, Marco Reus and Robert Lewandowski could all start. Midfielder Sven Bender and defender Neven Subotic could both miss out because of injury.

BVB have already beaten Real Madrid and Ajax in Dortmund, and they have lost just one of their seven home games in the Bundesliga. Conversely, City have won just three out of seven Premier League away games, and have lost in Madrid and Amsterdam. City have to win this game, and that could play into BVB's hands, as they love to catch teams out with speedy counter-attacks. Dortmund's confidence has also been boosted by the weekend's hard-fought 1-1 draw at Bayern Munich.

Klopp's system relies on high-energy pressing and lightning-fast movement, and as such he doesn't accept casual performances. I expect Dortmund to go for the victory regardless of their status as group winners, and I think they'll succeed against a weakened City team with one eye on the Manchester derby.

Recommended Bet: Back Borussia Dortmund to win at 2.14