Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid: Home win to Klopp in Germany

 

Tobias Gourlay believes Dortmund can take Mario Goetze's news on the chin and land a blow of their own at the Westfalenstadion this week

 

Wednesday 19:45

Westfalenstadion (Live on Sky Sports 2)

Dortmund 2.92 Real 2.58 draw 3.6

 

Match Odds

 

Germany's outgoing champions face Spain's outgoing champions for the third time season.

 

Dortmund won the group-stage home game 2-1, then Real needed a last-minute Mesut Ozil free-kick to stop them from leaving the Bernabeu with another three points.

 

Real might have improved since that first match, and should have a better left-back than Michael Essien this time, but there are lots of numbers saying they should not  be favourites to take a lead back to the Bernabeu, even if Dortmund must respond to Tuesday's news about Mario Goetze.

 

Los Blanco have won 1/24 European games on German soil, losing each of the last five. With Jose Mourinho in charge they have won 9/17 on the road in the Champions  League, including 3/8 most recently and 1/4 knockout-stage first legs.

 

Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund have won 5/5 at home in this season's competition, and 8/9 competitive matches at Westfalenstadion in 2013.

 

Over/Under Goals

 

Teams are too close to the summit for this stage of the Champions League to be free and easy with the entertainment: 14/18 semi-final first legs have finished with  Under 2.5 Goals.

 

But these two are more devil-may-care than most and the market expects at least three goals.

 

Real have scored in each of their last 17 Champions League games away from home, and conceded in 5/5 this season.

 

Yes is the most likely answer to Both Teams to Score? but that's keenly priced at 1.59 and so is Over 2.5 Goals (1.77).

 

Our concern here is a potential clash of styles: two counter-attacking sides, lightning-fast on the break; who dares to make the first move?

 

Half Time Score

 

Running with the idea of a style clash - and recalling the traditional caginess of semi-final first legs - a goalless first half might appeal at 3.55.

 

Set aside an outlying 5-0 win at Valencia and eight of Real's last ten La Liga away goals have come after half-time.

 

To Score

 

The visitors should break through sooner or later.

 

Cristiano Ronaldo, a scorer in October's running of this fixture, has found the back of the net in eight of his last nine club appearances and in each of Real's last  five Champions League outings.

 

2.0 says he can equal Burak Yilmaz's and (this is what Opta tells us) Marouane Chamakh's record of scoring in six straight CL games.

 

Asian Handicap

 

With Real set to notch at least once, Dortmund will likely need another two goals for a first-leg lead.

 

That's something they've managed in 7/7 at Westfalenstadion since mid-February, but you might still want a bit of cover for the draw.

 

Backing Dortmund 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap means you're paid out on half your stake if the teams finish level and the other half is returned.

 

Best Bet

Back Borussia Dortmund 0 & +0.5 @ 1.75

 

Recommended Bet

Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score @ 2.0

 

Bet HERE

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