Blues to make no mistake against Brentford

 

Alan Dudman looks to Sunday's FA Cup fourth round replay between Chelsea and Brentford, and expects a comfortable success for the Premier League club.

 

Chelsea 1.17 v Brentford 20.0, the draw 10.0

 

FA Cup fourth round replay, Sunday 12:00 BST, Live on ITV1

 

Only once in the last 14 years have Chelsea failed to reach the FA Cup fifth round, and the seven-times winners of the trophy should make no mistake this time against Brentford.

 

Match Odds:

 

Chelsea were 1.29 to win the first match at Griffin Park, so the money-buyers were dealt a blow following the 2-2 result. This time around the Blues are 1.17, a low-risk lay for those looking to take on Rafa Benitez's side.

 

The Bees will undoubtedly attract a small interest at 20.00, a huge price that is only seen in predicted

one-sided affairs. Even accounting for the shock of Brentford taking an early lead, the odds of Chelsea won't go out much as they will still be expected to win.

 

According to Opta, the Stamford Bridge club have lost only two of their last 18 replays in the FA Cup and it's clear that Brentford really missed their chance in the first match. They pressed at such a high tempo early in the Griffin Park clash, that their Premier League opponents got unsettled.

 

Granted the pitch was poor and sandy in the other side of west London, but for long spells Brentford actually looked the better team. This time around, no one expects them to win and the pressure is on the hosts.

 

Team news:

 

Chelsea welcome back Demba Ba, David Luiz, Victor Moses and John Obi Mikel. Whether Benitez plays fit again John Terry is open to question, as Branislav Ivanovic alongside Gary Cahill were the starters on Thursday in the Europa League. Terry was all over the place in the first game at Brentford.

 

Chelsea should line up 4-3-2-1 following their 1-0 midweek success over Sparta Prague - their first back-to-back success since December.

 

Brentford boss Uwe Rosler has no fresh injury concerns and might opt for a 4-5-1. They denied Chelsea width and prevented the full-backs getting involved in the original tie. The Bees were on their last legs in the final 10 minutes, such was their intensity.

 

First goalscorer:

 

Brentford wonderkid Harry Forrester struck at Griffin Park, and he can be backed at 24.0. Brentford's on-loan Italian Marcello Trotta can be found at 18.0 for the first goalscorer, and he is on a run of three in four games. Trotta netted a superb curling strike in midweek against Stevenage and those two look the biggest goal threats for the visitors.

 

According to Opta stats, in just nine FA Cup games for Chelsea, Juan Mata has been involved in 10 goals (four scored and six assists). Frank Lampard has an equally impressive record - scoring 14 in his last 24 FA Cup appearances. The England midfielder's price to net is 5.30, a decent figure considering his long range ability and penalty duties.

 

Correct score:

 

With such a short price on offer for Chelsea, my first instinct is to take a couple of correct scorelines. If you are trading on the live game, it's worth remembering Brentford have been somewhat of a 'late goal' specialist' in League One. Strikes in the final 10 minutes are into double figures now. I also think the fitness levels of Rolser's side will be wilting at the end due to them chasing the ball.

 

Although there is no pressure on the minnows, I expect a comfortable Chelsea win as the surprise factor is gone, and would look to back the 2-0 and 3-0.

 

Recommended bets:

Back Frank Lampard as first goalscorer @ 5.20

Back Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 6.60

 

Bet HERE

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