Black Cats to maul Swans

29Jan 2013

England - Premier League

There's nothing quite like a full program of Premier League fixtures midweek as not only does it mean an extra Match Of The Day, it also provides more betting opportunities. With three winners in the FA Cup at the weekend, Paul Robinson casts his eye over the Betfair fixed odds markets. Here are his selections:

Sunderland v Swansea - Sky Sports Two at 19:45

Back Sunderland @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back a Sunderland clean sheet @ 2.87 (15/8)

Sunderland take on Swansea at the Stadium of Light on Tuesday evening and I'm backing the Wearsiders to gain their fourth Premier League home win in five.

Martin O'Neill has managed to turn Sunderland's season round in the last couple of months and they have climbed to 11th in the table after winning five of their last eight matches. Three of those wins came at home as they defeated Reading, Manchester City and West Ham, all without conceding a goal.

Carlos Cuellar could well be back from injury and he is a key component of a back four that has tightened up considerably from earlier in the campaign. Steven Fletcher returned to form with a brace last time out - his first goals since before Christmas - and with him, and Adam Johnson in particular, playing at the top of their game, then the Swans defence could well be in for a hard night.

Swansea are on the crest of a wave after seeing off Chelsea and the boot of Eden Hazard to qualify for the final of the Capital One Cup. Their league form has also been good though as it's now six without defeat for Michael Laudrup's side. Four of those matches ended in draws though and while their defence has improved, the goals have dried up a bit at the other end.

Michu hasn't netted in the league since the 1-1 draw with Manchester United on the 23rd of December and they have fired three blanks in their last four away from the Liberty in the league. Danny Graham has started scoring again but he remains on the periphery of the first team as a move away from the club appears to be on the cards.

The Black Cats are definitely the value here at 2.3 (13/10) and I'm that confident about their supremacy that I'm also recommending a clean sheet for the home side at 2.87 (15/8).

Arsenal v Liverpool - Sky Sports Two at 19:45

Back Liverpool @ 2.9 (19/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.66 (4/6)

Arsenal and Liverpool meet in the live Sky game on Wednesday night and I'm taking Liverpool to exact revenge for the defeat at Anfield earlier in the season.

The Gunners edged out Brighton in the Cup on Saturday as I predicted but the defence again looked frail. Thomas Vermaelen just isn't showing the kind of form that he has done in recent seasons, Koscielny and Mertesacker are error prone and while Kieran Gibbs is fantastic at bombing forward, he can be a bit susceptible defensively.

Arsene Wenger has seen his team slide to three Premier League defeats at the Emirates already this year and they have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven. They've turned into flat track bullies, hammering poor sides like Newcastle and West Ham, but when they come up against better opposition, they are usually found out.

Liverpool have climbed to seventh in the table, just three points behind Arsenal and only seven adrift of Spurs in fourth place. Brendan Rodgers has added Daniel Sturridge in the transfer window and the Reds have had a bid accepted for Inter Milan's Philipe Coutinho. Sturridge has been an instant hit - scoring in every game he's played thus far - and just his presence alone has enabled Luis Suarez to be relieved of the pressure of being the only real goalscorer in the side.

Away from Anfield, Liverpool have won at Upton Park and Loftus Road recently and while they slipped to defeats at Stoke and Manchester United, they played much better in the second half at Old Trafford. Steven Gerrard has stepped up his game in the last month or so and the return of Lucas and the reintroduction of Jordan Henderson into the midfield have really helped him as the trio of Gerrard, Allen and Shelvey/Sahin was too lightweight and just didn't work.

While I do fancy Liverpool to get a victory here, it's more of a speculative punt as I feel their odds are a bit too big. If you're looking for something a bit more secure, then over 2.5 goals at 1.66 (4/6) looks good as Liverpool's last five on the road have gone over as have two of Arsenal's last three at home.

Norwich v Tottenham

Back Tottenham @ 1.75 (3/4)

Back Tottenham to win 2-1 @ 8.0 (7/1)

Norwich face the music at Carrow Road on Wednesday night after their embarrassing defeat to non-league Luton on Saturday but I can't see them getting much joy against an in-form Tottenham side.

The Canaries are in a right slump at the moment; knocked out of the FA Cup as mentioned above and just one point from a possible 18 in the league. Chris Hughton had appeared to turn things around as they went on a 10 match unbeaten run, but since that ended, they've been pretty poor and got progressively worse.

Last time out in the league they put in a pitiful display at Anfield, losing 5-0 in a scoreline that probably flattered them. Their home form has dipped as well, and although losing to Chelsea and Manchester City isn't too bad, they were held by Newcastle and couldn't even muster a goal against a team that have conceded 41 times this term.

Spurs have started to catch Chelsea in third after going seven matches undefeated in the league. That record was in danger last weekend but a late Clint Dempsey equaliser earned them a point and David de Gea scathing comments from Gary Neville.

Away from White Hart Lane, AVB's side have won three, drawn one and lost one since the 5-2 loss at the Emirates. The sole defeat could quite easily have been a win as well as they led 1-0 at Goodison Park before conceding two goals in injury time.

Jermain Defoe and Gareth Bale haven't scored for a while but Demspey has begun to chip in with more goals and Aaron Lennon is playing some of the best football of his career. The England winger has improved his end product and he's scored or assisted in three of his last four.

I can't see past a Spurs win here and I like the look of a 2-1 correct score at 8.0 (7/1) for a bigger priced selection this week.

Recommended Bets

Back Sunderland @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back a Sunderland clean sheet @ 2.87 (15/8)

Back Liverpool @ 2.9 (19/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Liverpool @ 1.66 (4/6)

Back Tottenham @ 1.75 (3/4)

Back Tottenham to win 2-1 @ 8.0 (7/1)

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.