Betis to provide Real test for Atletico

17Jan 2013

Copa Del Rey

Atletico Madrid host Real Betis in the Copa del Rey this evening, shown live on Betfair Video at 21:00, and despite the home side having the services of Falcao, Paul Robinson doesn't think there will be too many goals.

This is the first leg of their quarter-final clash and arguably Atletico Madrid's best chance of a trophy to add to their Super Cup. While they are through to the knockout phase of the Europa League and lie second in La Liga, there are still some top teams left in Europe and they trail Barcelona by 11 points domestically.

Diego Simeone's men have been unstoppable at home and they've now won 17 straight games at the Vicente Calderón Stadium. They have also kept clean sheets in their last eight and not conceded more than a single goal in a home match since the middle of September. While they can sometimes hammer teams, five of their last eight have gone under 2.5 goals and Betis will be no pushovers.

Pepe Mel has got his team firing this term and they find themselves in fourth place in La Liga, just three points adrift of Real Madrid. Champions League qualification would be a fantastic achievement but I'm sure the club would settle for the Europa League come the end of May.

Betis have their work cut out to make the semi-final of this competition though as Atletico are playing at Barcelona's level this year. They are unbeaten in their last four away from Estadio Benito Villamarín however, winning three and drawing one.

As this is a two legged affair, I'd expect Betis to set up pretty conservatively, just trying to keep in the tie and have something to take back to Seville. With four of their last half dozen going under 2.5 goals, that is something they are capable of achieving.

I appreciate that Falcao is the elephant in the room for this selection, but I can't be having over 2.5 goals as low as 1.75, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.