Betis and Atletico to keep it tight

24Jan 2013

Copa Del Rey

Atletico Madrid travel to Betis for the second leg of their Copa del Rey quarter-final and while the Betfair markets are predicting plenty of goals, Paul Robinson isn't so sure.

This time last week over 2.5 goals was trading at odds-on for the first leg of this tie and I rightly predicted that it would indeed go under. We face the same scenario tonight and I'm confident that we will get a similar result.

Real Betis are having a fine campaign; fourth in La Liga and through to the last eight of the Copa del Rey. They had won three games in a row prior to the 2-0 defeat in Madrid and they followed that up with a disappointing 1-1 draw with Athletic Club at home on Monday. That was only their second draw this term which is somewhat surprising.

Pepe Mel's side face a huge task to turn this tie around as looking at their form at Estadio Benito Villamarín, it shows us that in their 13 fixtures in all competitions there this year, they have only scored more than once on four occasions and more than twice just the once. Their last trio have all gone under 2.5, with the 1-0 victory over Las Palmas in the previous round of this competition going under 1.5.

Atletico Madrid are also having a fine campaign to date and while the La Liga title might just be out of reach, they are on course to finish above rivals, Real, and have a decent shot of success in the Copa del Rey and the Europa League. Diego Simeone has turned them into a much more consistent outfit, especially at home.

Radamel Falcao is another reason for their upturn in form, but the Argentinian has picked up an injury and he and his 22 goals this season will be absent tonight. The Mattress Makers aren't big scorers away from home anyway, opting to keep it tight at the back as opposed to getting into a goal slugging match with their opponents. Seven of their last eight on the road have had two goals or less and they drew 0-0 with Getafe in the away leg of their last 16 tie in this competition.

This match is live on Sky Sports Two from 19:00 this evening but I can't see viewers being treated to too many goals. That's why at around the 1.93 mark, I have to make over 2.5 my lay of the day.