Bayern's brilliance and experience will be too much for nervy Dortmund

25May 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

Jupp Heynckes' side hold all the cards going into the big game, writes James Eastham...

Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund, live on ITV1 & Sky Sports 1, 19:45 BST, Match Odds: Bayern 1.79, Dortmund 5.0, The Draw 4.1.

The market says Bayern Munich are favourites to win the Champions League on Saturday night. The challenge for bettors is to decide if they deserve that status - and, if so, to what exent.

If you believe league form over the course of a season is the best guide to a side's strength, this game should be a no-contest. Bayern won the Bundesliga title by finishing 25pts ahead of Dortmund. They clinched the prize with a record six games to spare. They scored 17 more goals and conceded 24 fewer than Jurgen Klopp's side.

Looking at head-to-heads, however, the situation becomes a little different. Opta points out Dortmund are undefeated in their last six league games against Bayern (W4-D2-L0), although that record takes in 2010-11 and 2011-12, when Dortmund were German champions. This season Bayern's record is W2-D2-L0, with victories in the Super Cup and the German Cup along with those league draws.

It's in the latter rounds of Europe where Bayern's supremacy has most clearly emerged. Dortmund needed controversial refereeing decisions to secure a 3-2 aggregate quarter-final victory over Malaga, whereas Bayern recorded 2-0 home and away wins over Juventus. In the semi-finals the gulf between the teams was arguably even greater: Bayern produced two of the competition's outstanding team performances to beat Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate, while Dortmund scraped through 4-3 on aggregate following a nervy final 10 minutes in their second leg against Real Madrid.

Another advantage for Bayern is their experience. They have appeared in two of the past three finals so know all about these occasions. This relatively young Dortmund side (the average age of their players that started in the semi-finals was 24.7, compared to 27.1 for Bayern) has never played in a game of this magnitude. Those signs of nerves against Real Madrid are something to take into account.

The loss of Mario Gotze is the single biggest piece of team news. Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has provided more Champions League assists this season. The supply line to Robert Lewandowski - whose 10 goals put him second in the goalscorer standings behind Cristiano Ronaldo (12) - will be less reliable without Gotze.

Taking all factors into account, Bayern's price of 1.79 to win in 90 minutes is about right. If you're looking for a bigger price I would advise Bayern -0.5&-1.0 Asian Handicap. With this selection half your stake will win if Bayern win by a single goal and your entire stake will win if they win by two goals or more.

Over 2.5 Goals is odds-on (1.8), reflecting the goals count in games involving these two sides in the competition so far (14/24 matches have featured over 2.5 goals). If the odds on Over 2.5 Goals are too short for you then leave this market alone rather than opposing overs.

An alternative goals bet is Dortmund in Last Team to Score market (around 2.75). Six of the 10 goals Bayern have conceded in this season's competition have been scored in the final 15 minutes of matches.