Barcelona v Bayern Munich: Germans will fight their corner

 

In a similar position against Arsenal in the last 16, Bayern weren't sure whether to stick or twist. Tobias Gourlay believes Jupp Heynckes' men now know what to do...

 

Wednesday 19:45

Camp Nou (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Barcelona 1.86 Bayern 4.2 draw 4.3

 

 

Match Odds

 

Teams holding four-goal leads in the middle of Champions League ties are pretty hard to find. Among those that earned their advantage at home, their second-leg record  is W2-D1-L1.

 

A couple of months ago Bayern themselves had a hefty head-start on Arsenal. After winning 3-1 in North London, they stalled and let the Londoners catch up with them on  aggregate.

 

When you're striving to be the best in the world, it's the sort of lesson that really can't go unlearnt.

 

Javi Martinez is a booking away from missing the final and can't bulldoze through the tiki taka with quite such abandon. There are others too - Lahm, Dante, Gustavo  and Gomez must all tread a fine line - but such was Bayern's tactical success in the first leg that, for the first time in yonks, it's not totally clear Barcelona  should be odds-on to win at home.

 

Jupp Heynckes' visitors have won 25/26 matches in all competitions (and friendlies) in 2013 - that Arsenal game is the exception - and a mean defence should get them  through this tie.

 

In desperate pursuit of at least four goals, Barcelona will be vulnerable to the laser-sharp counter-attacks that killed them in the first leg.

 

Messi is fitter, but the result might just be the same.

 

 

Asian Handicap

 

Barcelona have only won one of their seven competitive encounters with Bayern (W1-D2-L4).

 

More relevant, probably, they have won only one of their last six Champions League games (W1-D3-L2).

 

Their long unbeaten run at the Camp Nou deserves respect, so you might want to cover the draw with a bet on Bayern +0.5. It pays out just the same if the visitors win  or finish all-square with their hosts.

 

 

Over/Under Goals

 

The promise of all-out attack versus devastating counter-attack has got the market a bit hot under the collar.

 

Over 2.5 Goals is a measly 1.54. That's fine, but there's surely a danger the match could quickly peter out.

 

Barcelona claim to have restored their self-belief - despite only drawing with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday - but Tito Vilanova is already talking about trying to make  it seven straight Champions League semi-finals next season.

 

And it is, after all, 275 minutes of playing time since Bayern conceded a goal in this season's competition.

 

 

Corners Match Bet

 

Barcelona had 66% of possession in the first leg, but lost this particular battle 4-11.

 

The aggregate corners score from their last three Champions League home games is 15-18 in favour of Benfica, AC Milan and Paris St Germain.

 

Bayern have won 30% more corners than anyone else in this year's competition (100 in 11 games). The Bavarians are conceding at a rate of just two a game on the road  and have won this battle in each of those five matches by a combined 48-10.

 

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Bayern Munich +0.5 @ 2.2

Back Bayern Munich in the Corners Match Bet @ 5.0

 

Bet HERE

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