Bantams can make Villa toil in first leg

Jaymes Monte looks at Tuesday night's Capital One Cup semi-final first-leg from Valley Parade...

 

Sky Sports 1, Tuesday 19:45 GMT

 

Bradford 5.0 v Aston Villa 1.8; The Draw 4.0

 

Having already seen off Wigan and Arsenal in this season's Capital One Cup, there will be no danger of Bradford being taken lightly by Premier League opposition this Tuesday evening.

 

Both The Latics and The Gunners fell by the wayside as consequence of Bradford's incredible run of nine consecutive penalty shoot-out victories. But The Bantams will need to be level after 210 minutes of football against Villa if they are to have any chance of extending that run to 10 here. First and foremost, lest us not forget that the outcome of this tie will not be decided this week.

 

The two-legged semi-final is certainly an advantage to the Premier League outfit, and odds of 1.15 about Paul Lambert's side featuring in February's final look to fairly reflect their strong chances of progression.

 

But they'll certainly be forced to work for the right. Bradford have only lost three of their 17 games at Valley Parade in all competitions this term, with Rochdale (2-4) the only team to win here by more than a single goal.

 

As tempting as the 1.8 about a Premier League side to beat a League Two side is, it's not a price that I'd want to be backing. The weekend's 2-1 win over Ipswich will certainly have raised morale, but Villa remain a youthful and inexperienced side very much in a transitional period, at best. Beating a Championship side in the FA Cup does not constitute the end of a crisis.

 

Bradford +0.75 can be backed at odds of 1.94, and looks to be the best bet in relation to the match result.

 

The common denominator in Bradford's surprise progression to this stage of the tournament has been solid defensive displays against loftier opposition. In four games against Notts County, Watford, Wigan and Arsenal, The Bantams have conceded only two goals. At odds of 2.16, Under 2.5 goals looks an outstanding bet. Especially given that it's unlikely Villa will want to force the issue too much, knowing that they have the second leg on home soil still to come.

 

We can also get tempting odds of 6.0 that Bradford keep a clean sheet.

 

If we are going to see goals then there are a few usual suspects to look out for.

 

We know a bit about Bradford from watching games against Arsenal and Wigan, but we haven't seen the best of striker Nahki Wells in either of those matches. The 22-year-old Bermudan has scored 15 goals in 31 appearances in all competitions this season, but was substituted midway through the second half in both Capital One Cup games against Premier League opposition. He is a 3.3 chance to show his better form and add to his tally this midweek.

 

Villa's main threat will come from either Christian Benteke or Darren Bent, depending on which of the two Lambert opts to name in his starting XI. Bent made a goalscoring return to the side at the weekend as the Villa boss rang the changes, but the £18-million striker has been used sparingly in recent months and it remains to be seen if he did enough to alter his manager's opinion of him.

 

Both players can be backed at around the 2.0 mark to find the back of the net this Tuesday.

 

Over the course of two legs you have to fancy the Premier League boys to get the job done. Bu they'll need to be on their guard right up until the final whistle against this battling Bradford side. All but one of the six goals Phil Parkinson's side have scored in the League Cup this term have come in the 83rd minute or later. Keep an eye on those In-Play markets towards the end of the game.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16

Back Bradford +0.75 @ 1.94 in Asian Handicap market

 

Bet HERE

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