Bahrain Grand Prix Betting: Fernando's flying Ferrari ready to win

20Apr 2013

Fernando Alonso is favourite to win the Bahrain Grand Prix after qualifying third and James Frankland finds it tough to disagree with the Betfair market

His name didn't feature on many people's lists of likely polesitters, but Nico Rosberg emerged fastest of all to take his second career pole position to add to China 2012. Rosberg won that race from pole position but he faces a battle to maintain that record tomorrow with Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso snapping at the Mercedes' rear tyres.

Lewis Hamilton qualified fourth but drops five places as a result of a penalty for changing his gearbox in between third practice and qualifying. That elevates Mark Webber, Felipe Massa, the impressive Force India duo of Paul di Resta and Adrian Sutil, and Australian GP winner Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton will start from the fifth row alongside Jenson Button, who seemed delighted just to have made it into Q3, so beset is McLaren's MP4-28 with problems.

Rosberg's odds for victory are quite long for a polesitter at 8.0 and I think this reflects the accepted view that Mercedes are good on one-lap pace but lack race pace. For evidence, look at last week's race in China - that time it was Hamilton who started first but ended up third, 12 seconds behind winner Alonso and under massive pressure for the final podium position from Vettel, who attacked Lewis on new soft tyres at the end of the race.

For me the winner is going to be either second-placed Vettel or Ferrari's Fernando Alonso, starting third, and I like the look of the red car for the win. Alonso - and, crucially - Massa have both been fast throughout the weekend, and Red Bull don't seem to have quite got on top of the current range of Pirelli tyres, so a Ferrari win looks promising and Alonso currently has the shortest odds of victory at 2.66 with Vettel at 3.7.

With Rosberg expected to go backwards, a lay of the German for a podium finish at 3.0 is worth looking at.

Massa should also be considered in the market. The Brazilian is starting on the hard tyres, aping Vettel's approach from China where he ran contrary to the majority and almost snared a podium from ninth place on the grid. Massa starts fifth and so could use the apparent pace advantage of the F138 to move forwards on a circuit where he has won twice in the past. Short odds at 2.26 suggest the market expects a strong Ferrari presence on the podium tomorrow.

Check back nearer to the start of the race to see how the odds for di Resta and Sutil are shaping up to finish in the Top Six market. At present both are available at 2.0 but you should be able to get a bigger price matched. With di Resta starting sixth following Hamilton's demotion, the Force India package looks strong and they could even leapfrog McLaren with a good result this weekend. Di Resta has had the upper hand over Sutil throughout free practice and qualifying so I expect to see this trend continuing into tomorrow's race.

Recommended Bets

Back Fernando Alonso to win 2.66

Back Felipe Massa to finish on the podium 2.26

Back Paul di Resta to finish in the Top Six at bigger than 2.0