Baggies excellent run set to continue

Another slice of Premier League stats courtesy of Andrew Atherley, and this week our man points out the likely improvement in Southampton and why West Brom are sill worth following...

Regular readers of this column will know the importance placed on form involving different sectors of the league table and some interesting trends are developing with Southampton now that their tough early fixture list has begun to ease.

 

The Saints played nine of the current top 10 in their first 11 games - an unusually skewed programme that puts into perspective their haul of just five points from those games. That left them deep in trouble near the foot of the table but the signs are more encouraging now that the standard of opposition is falling.

 

Southampton have won their last two games - 3-1 at rock-bottom QPR and 2-0 at home to 14th-placed Newcastle - and they now have one of the best records against bottom-half teams in the Premier League.

 

That ranking on points per game - which can be viewed here - has Southampton in fifth with three wins and one defeat (2-0 against Wigan in their first home game). Only the current top four in the overall table are doing better than Southampton on this measure.

 

Nigel Adkins' side could make further strides before the new year, with five of their remaining seven games in 2012 against bottom-half sides. That run starts at home to Norwich on Wednesday night with the Saints an attractive 2.14 for the win.

 

The contrast in styles will be fascinating. Southampton boast the best attack among bottom-half teams whereas Norwich are the joint-lowest scorers in the Premier League (along with QPR) and have built their survival plan on being hard to score against.

 

Southampton have scored more than once in six of their first 13 matches and the only team who have outscored them in that scenario are the two Manchester clubs. It is unlikely Norwich will be able to do the same, having lost all three games when conceding more than once.

 

The outcome is likely to hinge on which style holds sway and the odds are good that it will be Southampton's scoring prowess (they have scored nine goals to four in their four matches so far against bottom-half opposition).

 

West Brom have made their best start to a season since 1953 - better even than Ron Atkinson's exciting team of the late 1970s - and there is no warning sign that they are going to hit the buffers any time soon. We know their great run will come to an end, but when and where is impossible to say.

 

At the moment they are difficult to oppose and their odds still haven't fallen in line with their form. On Saturday they are odds-against at home to poor travellers Stoke despite a record of 10 wins in 14 games at the Hawthorns since the uplift in their form took hold in February.

 

At 2.02 for the win, Steve Clarke's team look good value again. Stoke simply don't offer the same threat on the road as they do at fortress Britannia (only eight goals scored in their last 13 away games against top-half teams).

 

The Baggies are also worth considering at 3.25 for Wednesday night's trip to Swansea. Their overall away record since February is solid enough but it catches the eye even more when excluding games against teams that finished in last season's top eight or are in the current top eight.

 

On that measure - going back 14 months - West Brom have lost only two of their last 14, which indicates they are a solid bet off 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.1.

 

Pick of the stats

 

West Ham v Chelsea

Chelsea are unbeaten in the last 12 Premier League meetings, with 10 wins. West Ham's last win was in May 2003.

 

Recommended Bets

Southampton to beat Norwich at 2.14 (Wednesday)

West Brom to beat Stoke at 2.02 (Saturday)

 

Bet HERE !

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