Baggies and Blues look good on the handicap

28Mar 2013

Betfair

Andrew Atherley crunches the numbers to come up with one bet each from West Brom's league trip to West Ham, and Chelsea's FA Cup replay at home to Manchester United...

West Brom appear to be over their mid-season blip and on overall form they have a good chance at struggling West Ham on Saturday.

The Baggies clearly overachieved in the early part of the season and fourth place at the end of November was always going to be difficult to maintain. The almost inevitable downturn came in the month after Christmas when they took just one point out of a possible 18, but it wasn't quite as bad as it looked because three of the six games in that run were against Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton.

West Brom's form has picked up again during a run of easier fixtures since early February, with their only defeat in the last five games being a 1-0 loss at Chelsea, and they have solid underlying form against the bulk of the Premier League. That is the most significant factor in the context of Saturday's match.

Steve Clarke's side have lost just six out of 19 against teams below them in the table and since Christmas their record in that category is four wins, two draws and two defeats, which is respectable considering that period straddles both their post-Christmas blip and the recent improvement in results.

It is the ability to take points off the lesser teams that has sustained West Brom's improvement this season. Against bottom-half teams (a category that includes West Ham) the Baggies have taken 28 points from 15 games at a rate of 1.87 points per game, a record bettered only by the big six. They have lost just three out of 15, which indicates they are a good bet on the Asian handicap at least against West Ham.

West Ham, by contrast, have lost 10 out of 15 against top-half teams, with just three wins. And, unlike West Brom, their post-Christmas slump has been deep and long. They have lost seven out of 11 in that period and two of their three wins were against Norwich and Stoke, who along with West Ham have been the worst sides in the Premier League since Christmas.

West Brom are 3.3 for the win and 1.9 off 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap. The Asian option gives a little back in the event of a draw, although by matchday they are likely to be around 2.3 off scratch on the Asian handicap and that would be more attractive.

Chelsea v Manchester United in their FA Cup quarter-final replay is the highlight of Easter Monday and the hosts are the team to back based on their remarkable cup record.

The fightback for a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford extended Chelsea's FA Cup record to 28 matches (22 wins and six draws) without defeat in 90-minute play since they were knocked out at the quarter-final stage five years ago by Barnsley. Their only exit from the competition since then was on penalties against Everton in the fourth round two years ago.

Although Everton knocked them out at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea haven't lost in 90-minute play at home in the FA Cup for just over 10 years. That defeat was 3-1 by Arsenal in the quarter-finals and since then Chelsea have had 24 home games (20 wins and four draws) without losing in 90-minute play.

With the tie having to be decided on Monday, Chelsea are 1.87 To Qualify for a semi-final meeting with Manchester City, which looks a good price based on their cup record.

Alternatively they are 2.54 for the win in 90 minutes and 2.14 giving up a small start off 0 & -0.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Recommended Bets

Back West Brom off 0 & +0.5 on Asian Handicap v West Ham at 1.9

Back Chelsea off 0 & -0.5 on Asian Handicap v Manchester United at 2.14