Back Wolves for safety and Blackburn for the drop

23Apr 2013

England - The Championship

Callum Davis takes a look at the Championship relegation battle ahead of Blackburn's trip to Millwall tonight - a game that could prove pivotal to Rovers' survival hopes...

Even by the Championship's usual standards of tense competition, this season has been one of the most closely contested for many years. Although the second automatic promotion spot and playoff positions are far from being decided, it is at the bottom of the table where the most enthralling drama looks set to unfold.

A mere five points separate Barnsley in 23rd from Ipswich in 15th and all the teams in between have the genuine threat of relegation to League One hanging over them as we approach the final two weeks of the season. As predictions go, this one is exceptionally hard to call and the cluster of clubs sitting so closely together above the relegation zone means that the outcome could conceivably come down to goal difference on the last day.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, momentum in the Championship at this stage of the season has previously proven to be the key to the success or demise of any club hoping to avoid relegation or gain promotion, and this year will be no different. Reading's late acceleration into the automatic promotion spots last season was largely due to their extraordinary run of victories late in the campaign, while Bolton's latest surge up the table into the playoffs is another example of the effect a good run of form can have in such a closely congested table as the Championship. You only have to look at Crystal Palace's abysmal run which has seen them go from challengers for automatic promotion to a team who are clinging on to a place in the playoffs after no wins in six to see how damaging a dip in form can be.

While Bolton have found some stability since relegation and genuine form under Dougie Freedman, the two other relegated sides from last season, Wolves and Bolton, have found themselves facing the prospect of the dreaded double drop. Although Wolves currently reside in the relegation zone in 21st, it is Blackburn's current demise which is looking more critical. Ahead of tonight's visit to The Den, Blackburn sit just two points above the drop on the back of five losses from six away games and on the precipice of losing their Championship status.

Blackburn's season has been punctuated by a series of farcical managerial dismissals which has turned the Rovers from much fancied pre-season promotion candidates to a team in free-fall with a fundamental crisis of leadership.

If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight's game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season. With remaining fixtures against Crystal Palace at home and Birmingham away on the last game of the season, Rovers fans will feel uneasy with the prospect of needing to get a result in one of those two games to ensure safety. Millwall are unbeaten in three against Blackburn and have kept clean sheets in each of those games, and despite Millwall's indifferent home record of late I'm unconvinced that Blackburn will be able get the result they need to distance themselves from getting drawn into the relegation places on the final day of the season.

With that in mind, and given Blackburn's form and tricky run in, 6.6 for Blackburn to be relegated looks like the best value in the relegation market. If they come away from south London without a result that price should begin to shorten as Palace and Birmingham beckon.

Although the pressure is firmly on Wolves manager Dean Saunders to rescue the failing Midlanders, I'd be backing them to carry on their recent peak in form (ten points from their last six) to finish the season strongly and avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth, leaving Blackburn fans with the prospect of an uncertain future in the third tier of English football.

Recommended Bets

Lay Wolves to be relegated at 2.04

Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.6