Back underrated Togo to cause another upset

 

Emmanuel Adebayor and co. are the smart bet as Group D reaches its exciting conclusion on Wednesday, writes James Eastham...

 

Togo v Tunisia (Wed)

Live on British Eurosport 2, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Togo 3.45, Tunisia 2.34, The Draw 3.4

 

These two sides are both on 3pts but I know who I favour going into this match.

 

Togo have exceeded expectations, coming within a couple of minutes of getting a draw in their opening game against Ivory Coast (they lost 2-1) before deservedly seeing  off Algeria (2-0) in their second game. The Sparrow Hawks went into the tournament riddled with problems but have come together better than most observers predicted.

 

In contrast, Tunisia are lucky to be still in contention. Outplayed for spells of their opening match against Algeria, they benefitted from their opponents' poor  finishing before Youssef Msakni scored an injury-time winner. Ivory Coast comfortably outplayed them in their second game, winning 3-0.

 

I'm surprised Togo are as big as 3.45 and Tunisia as short as 2.34 to win this game. Those prices owe more to the two teams' pre-tournament status than the way they have played since landing in South Africa. I would oppose Tunisia by backing Togo with some sort of Asian Handicap start.

 

My other selection would be goals. Generally speaking you get more goals in the final round of games because teams are in a now-or-never situation. This tournament  bears this out: the opening 16 games produced an average of 1.81 goals a game, while the final group games in Groups A and B averaged three goals a game.

 

Over 2.5 Goals at 2.36 or 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market at 2.00 are worth considering.

 

 

Algeria v Ivory Coast (Wed)

Live on British Eurosport, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Algeria 5.1, Ivory Coast 1.83, The Draw 3.7

 

This is a game between a side already out of the competition - Algeria - and another guaranteed to finish top.

 

It is therefore a risky game for bettors. Algeria may play for pride, but may also put out a scratch team. Based on what we have seen from them so far at the finals  there is little reason to support them. Unlucky to lose to an injury-time goal in their first match against Tunisia (1-0), they dominated for periods of their second  match against Togo but were poor in the final third again and lost 2-0. With their mood low, they may struggle here.

 

Ivory Coast laboured to a 2-1 win over Togo in their opening game before playing more freely in beating Tunisia 3-0 in their second match. Late goals have been a  feature of Ivory Coast's games - against Togo, Gervinho struck on 88 minutes, while Yaya Toure (87 mins) and Didier Ya Konan (90 mins) struck late against Tunisia.

 

On what we've seen so far Ivory Coast are tempting at 1.83 but with nothing at stake I'd leave this game alone.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Togo +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap v Tunisia @ 1.95

Togo v Tunisia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.36

 

Bet HERE

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