Back super Szalai to make his mark for Mainz

9Nov 2012

The Betfair Live Video service brings you top-quality sporting events from around the world, including Friday night's intriguing Bundesliga clash between Mainz and Nurnberg. Kevin Hatchard picks out the best bets.

Match Odds: Mainz 1.87, Nurnberg 4.7, the draw 3.85

Mainz boss Thomas Tuchel is one of the most consistent miracle workers in the Bundesliga. I must admit I thought Die Nullfunfer would struggle this year after losing another clutch of quality players, but they lie eighth in the table after ten games, a healthy seven points above the bottom two.

Tuchel has been in charge for three seasons, and Mainz have finished ninth, fifth and 13th. He has used the loan market expertly - the likes of Christian Fuchs, Lewis Holtby and Adam Szalai (who is now a permanent Mainz player) have all excelled during temporary spells. Tuchel seems to be able to adapt regardless of how much attacking talent walks through the exit door - in the summer of 2011 German international forward Andre Schurrle left to join Bayer Leverkusen, while this summer Tuchel was happy to part company with strikers Mohamed Zidan and Sami Allagui (who had scored 12 goals between them that season.)

After extending his contract at the Coface Arena, Szalai has been the star performer this season. The Hungarian has bagged ten goals in 12 games in all competitions, and he's netted eight times in the Bundesliga. Szalai is effectively a lone striker, with attacking midfielders Nicolai Muller and Andreas Ivanschitz getting forward as often as possible to support him. On this basis, I would suggest backing Szalai in the First Goalscorer market at 4.9 isn't a bad idea.

Mainz have an excellent home record. They have won three Bundesliga games and lost one at the Coface Arena, and they have conceded just one goal in front of their own fans. Tuchel's men also picked up a 2-0 home win against Erzgebirge Aue last month in the German Cup.

Nurnberg have an alchemist of their own in coach Dieter Hecking, but not too much gold has been created in the opening ten games. The Bavarians secured a desperately needed 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Wolfsburg last week, with Timo Gebhart scoring a late winner.

As is often the case with Nurnberg, they have struggled to score goals. They have managed to find the net just eight times in the league, and none of their players have scored more than once. The best offensive weapon they have appears to be Japanese international midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake, who arrived in the summer from Cerezo Osaka. Kiyotake's delivery into the box from free-kicks and corners is outstanding, and he has set up half of Nurnberg's Bundesliga goals this season.

Given Mainz's home form you may be tempted to think that a comfortable home win is on the cards, but Nurnberg have actually been far more effective on their travels than at home this term. They have picked up wins at Hamburg and Borussia Monchengladbach, and they only lost 1-0 at Schalke. If you do want a solid reason to back Mainz at 1.87, then Opta tell us they have won their last six home games against Nurnberg.

Of more interest is the 1.88 on offer for Under 2.5 Goals. Six of Nurnberg's ten Bundesliga games have featured Under 2.5 Goals, including four of the last five. Three of four Mainz home games have also contained fewer than 2.5 goals.

It's also worth looking at backing No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.04. This has paid out in all four of Mainz's Bundesliga games at the Coface Arena, and in each of Nurnberg's last five league matches. Mainz don't concede many at home, while Nurnberg don't score many anywhere.

Remember Betfair customers can watch this game live with us on Betfair Live Video on their PC, tablet or mobile, as well as plenty of other sports events from around the world. I'll be tweeting @BetfairSports throughout the game, bringing you some juicy in-play opportunities.

Recommended Bets:

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.88

Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.04

Back Adam Szalai to be First Goalscorer at 4.9