Back stalemates in Paris and Munich on Tuesday night

2Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

James Horncastle believes both Champions League games on Tuesday will be draws, as dark horses Juventus face Bayern and Barcelona travel to Paris St Germain...

Arguably the finest hour of Bayern Munich coach Jupp Heynckes' 34-year coaching career came against Juventus. The occasion was the 1998 Champions League final in Amsterdam. He was manager of Real Madrid at the time and oversaw a 1-0 win that brought the club their seventh trophy in this competition.

Thrown on late in the game to try and rescue the result, Juventus' current coach Antonio Conte was to lose his second Champions League final in three years. It hurt and he won't want his players to experience that same feeling at this late stage of the competition.

Bayern come into this game on the back of a 9-2 demolition of Hamburg at the Allianz Arena, their biggest win in the Bundesliga since April 1988. They would have won the title there and then had Borussia Dortmund not beaten Stuttgart on Saturday and put off the inevitable at least for another week. If they were to do it then, it would be the earliest anyone has ever lifted the Meisterschale.

This clearly is a formidable Bayern team. The market has them at 1.57 to qualify for the next stage of the Champions League and 6.4 to win the whole thing.

Juventus, however, don't fear Bayern. Undefeated in the league throughout the entirety of last season and beaten just four times since Conte's appointment in the summer of 2011, they're an attractive proposition as dark horses to win the competition for the first time since 1996 at 15.5.

Juventus are the only team along with Dortmund who are yet to lose in the Champions League this season. They have the best defence and have kept five straight clean sheets. So backing them to record another one at 5.9 has a certain allure.

Bayern didn't score at home in their last Champions League game against Arsenal. However, that was the first time they hadn't done so since April 2012 when they were held to a goalless draw at the Allianz Arena by Mainz. It's hard to see Bayern not scoring, though. After all, they do have the joint-best attack in the Champions League. Taking all that into account, I anticipate this to be a tight affair and the draw is worth backing at 4.1.

Vying for consideration as the tie of the round is Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona.

The Ligue 1 leaders' general manager Leonardo popped the question to his girlfriend, the Sky Italia presenter Anna Billo live on TV shortly after the draw in Nyon. So here's another indecent proposal for you. The market is perhaps underestimating Paris Saint-Germain's chances of getting a result at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night. They're 5.1 to win and 4.0 to draw.

To a certain extent this is justifiable. Barcelona regained a lot of people's confidence by emphatically turning around their last 16 tie with Milan. The second leg at the Camp Nou was up there with one of their best performances of the last four and a half years and made the many predictions that they were at the end of a cycle look foolish.

So convincing were Barcelona that they remain favourites to win the Champions League for the third time in five seasons at 2.72. While I believe they'll progress to the semi-finals, there are some doubts about them ahead of this first leg in Paris. Saturday's 2-2 draw against Celta Vigo did little to inspire confidence.

Admittedly Barcelona were missing seven regular first team players: Victor Valdes was suspended while Adriano, Jordi Alba, Xavi, Pedro and Carles Puyol were all out injured. Those who did play were maybe already thinking ahead to Paris Saint-Germain, but you'd have thought Barcelona would have had enough to beat a relegation threatened Celta side who were also without their best player, the suspended Iago Aspas.

Only two of the players who missed the Celta game, Valdes and Xavi, are expected to start in Paris. Cules will also be hoping that Jordi Alba makes it too. Because it's in defence where their worries lie.

Bearing in mind that Barcelona have only won three of their last 14 away games in the knock-out stages of the Champions League, and have lost two of their last three on their travels, just why they are 1.78 to win at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night when their hosts haven't suffered a defeat at home in European competition since November 2006 slightly beggars belief. So back the draw at 4.0.

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Bayern and Juventus to draw at 4.1

Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona to draw at 4