Back Newcastle and Spurs to enjoy home comforts

14Feb 2013

Europa Liga

After coming through the group phase unscathed, Newcastle and Spurs begin the knockout stage on Thursday, and Kevin Hatchard expects them both to start with a win.

Tottenham vs Lyon, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ITV1

Match Odds: Spurs 1.87, Lyon 4.9, the draw 3.8

Spurs boss Andre Villas Boas has once again been banging the drum for the Europa League, and I think he deserves plenty of credit for his consistent support for the competition. He wants to win the tournament (just as he did with Porto in 2011), and at 16.5 in the Winner market, I think Spurs are a good bet to go all the way.

With no game for Spurs this coming weekend, we can expect a strong line-up, which will include man of the moment Gareth Bale. The Welsh wonder scored two excellent goals in the weekend's 2-1 success against Newcastle, further enhancing what has been an outstanding season. Bale has scored 15 goals in 30 matches in all competitions this term, and he has managed six assists. With Jermain Defoe injured, Emmanuel Adebayor may well lead the line, and he has scored five goals in his last five Europa League starts.

Lyon are having a good season in Ligue 1 (they are second behind PSG), but their recent form is poor. Remi Garde's men have won just one of their last four games, and in their last two matches they have suffered 3-1 defeats away to Ajaccio and at home to Lille. Lyon's results in the Europa League have been impressive, but it's worth considering they topped a modest group which featured an Athletic Bilbao side that vastly underperformed. They did however score plenty of goals in the group stage (14 in six games), and they will have plenty of firepower at their disposal on Thursday, with Garde able to choose from Lisandro Lopez, Bafetimbi Gomis and Alex Lacazette.

Spurs are unbeaten in the Europa League, and in all competitions they have lost just one of their last 12 games. Given Lyon's shaky form, I think 1.87 is a great price for the Spurs win. Lyon are more than capable of grabbing an away goal too (only Leverkusen and Stuttgart have had more goal attempts in the competition), so I like the look of 2.1 for Over 2.5 Goals.

Recommended Bets

Back Spurs to win at 1.87

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1

Newcastle United vs Metalist Kharkiv, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Newcastle 2.2, Metalist 3.7, the draw 3.55

After Newcastle's French-flavoured January spending spree, there is a sense of rebirth at St James' Park. The Magpies have eased their Premier League relegation fears with recent wins over Aston Villa and Chelsea, and they competed well in the weekend's 2-1 reverse at Spurs.

Newcastle came through their Europa League group despite fielding under-strength sides in some of their matches, but boss Alan Pardew has indicated he will select his strongest available line-up for this clash with Ukrainians Metalist Kharkiv. Pardew is all too aware that his side may need a significant buffer ahead of a tricky away trip next week.

The Magpies can take comfort from their exceptional home record in European competition. Our friends at Opta tell us that Newcastle are unbeaten in 23 European home games, a run that stretches back to 2003. Of those 23 matches, Newcastle have won 18.

Metalist Kharkiv are no pushovers, having topped their group with a record of four wins, one draw and one defeat. They have been weakened by the sale of Brazilian forward Taison to Shakhtar Donetsk, but his compatriot Cleiton Xavier will be a threat - he has five Europa League goals in seven appearances.

Despite Metalist's quality, I think a strong Newcastle team backed by raucous home support can grab a slender first-leg advantage, and I think the price of 2.2 for the home win is good value.

Recommended Bet

Back Newcastle to win at 2.2