Back Lewis Hamilton to win in China from pole position

14Apr 2013

Lewis Hamilton has secured his first pole position in a Mercedes and looks to have a great chance in Shanghai, says James Frankland...

His motivation and reasons for moving from McLaren to Mercedes have been debated at length since Lewis Hamilton announced he was to join the Silver Arrows this season, but in qualifying for the Chinese Grand Prix Hamilton secured pole position to underline the improvement Mercedes has made this year.

It is clearly a track which suits both Hamilton and Mercedes - Lewis has won here twice and finished on the podium in each of the past three seasons, whilst Nico Rosberg won his and the team's first race here last year from pole position. Hamilton is therefore well-placed to repeat the trick and his odds of victory at 3.25 offer better value than they might if Sebastian Vettel or Fernando Alonso were occupying pole position. If you're predicting a weekend of Hamilton domination, back him at 5.5 to take the win from pole position and set fastest lap on the way.

Alongside Lewis is Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, who didn't look especially fast throughout qualifying but banged in a time when it mattered most, just over a quarter of a second behind the Mercedes and marginally ahead of Ferrari's Fernando Alonso, with Rosberg fourth in the other Mercedes. Raikkonen 4.5 will be hoping to repeat his Melbourne trick of stopping one less time than his rivals and if he can achieve it, ought to be a strong contender for victory. You can also never discount Alonso - his Ferrari has looked quick all weekend, evidenced by Felipe Massa being right up there in the standings also - and offers a chance of a good return at 4.7 for victory in Shanghai on Sunday.

Red Bull opted for a contrary strategy with Sebastian Vettel, qualifying ninth on the medium tyres. They will hope this will pay off later in the race, by running longer than their soft tyre-shod rivals and switching onto the faster rubber late in the race, hoping to pick off any places in the process. It's risky, but ought to give Vettel a decent chance of a podium finish and he's worth backing at 1.91. If you're feeling really brave then he's available at 6.8 for the win.

Check back later before deciding where to put your money in relation to Mark Webber, for the Aussie has yet to hear if he will start from the back of the grid after running out of fuel in second qualifying. In 2011 Mark went from 18th to third so if he ends up last, it's not beyond the realms of possibility he could snare a top six finish. At the moment his odds of 1.5 are based on his starting position of 14th, but will improve if, as seems likely, he'll be demoted for his fuel irregularity.

Paul di Resta should also be considered for a points finish at 1.73 - the Scotsman starts 11th with a free choice of tyres and, whichever strategy he chooses, needs to only make up one place in order to secure a point come the end of the race. He will probably be eyeing the Toro Rosso of Daniel Ricciardo, which qualified seventh but could fall backwards on race day.

Recommended Bets

Lewis Hamilton to win 3.25

Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium 1.91

Paul di Resta to finish in the points 1.73