Back Lewandowski to shine and Dortmund to get a draw in the Bernabeu

30Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

European football writer James Horncastle thinks Dortmund can match Real Madrid at the Bernabeu and secure their place in the Champions League final...

The good news, I guess, if you're a Real Madrid supporter is that Robert Lewandowski didn't score at the weekend.

The Borussia Dortmund striker fired a blank for the first time in the Bundesliga since the turn of the year, ending a streak of 12 consecutive league games in which his name had figured on the scoresheet. As a run it had threatened the 16-game record set by Gerd Müller in 1970.

There's some sympathy for Lewandowski here. He only played the final 20 minutes of Dortmund's 2-1 win away to Fortuna Düsseldorf. Had he started then his chances of equalling Müller's feat would have been greater.

The bad news if you're a Real Madrid supporter is that Lewandowski is fresh for Tuesday night's Champions League semi-final second leg. After hitting four in the first, something last achieved at this late stage of the competition by Real legend Alfredo Di Stefano in the 1960 final, he can be backed to score at the Bernabeu at 2.02.

That poker took Lewandowski's total in the Champions League this season to within two goals of top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo. The question is: can the Pole catch and maybe even overtake the Portuguese?

A Dortmund goal on Tuesday night would kill this tie off. There's an onus on Lewandowski to find one. And considering Dortmund are the more likely at this stage to reach the final and thereby grant their centre-forward another 90 minutes playing time perhaps there's value to be had in backing him to win the Champions League Golden Boot at 5.2.

Following the same logic, Ronaldo also needs to score on Tuesday night if Real are to have a hope of progressing. He got what could prove a vital away goal in the first leg at the Westfalenstadion but one might argue that it only came about because of an error from Mats Hummels. For the most part, Dortmund succeeded in keeping him quiet and anyway he's a doubt to start the second leg after picking up a thigh injury.

"We can turn it around," Real coach Jose Mourinho said. "It's very difficult but we can do it. In football anything is possible. On a crazy night when everyone performs at a high level, when every chance is a goal, we can turn it around."

Real can draw inspiration from Deportivo La Coruna, who reversed a 4-1 first leg defeat away to AC Milan in the 2004 quarter-finals with a 4-0 win at the Riazor in the second leg.

The exchange has them at 1.66 to win on the night and 5.5 to qualify. There's temptation here. We saw in the Round of 16 how teams with a commanding lead from the first leg couldn't then get the psychological approach to the second leg right. Milan beat Barcelona 2-0 at San Siro then lost 4-0 at the Camp Nou. Bayern hammered Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates then risked going out, losing 2-0 at the Allianz Arena.

Dortmund are a young team and irrespective of everything they've done over the last two and a half years, they're still quite inexperienced at this level. As a group, they have never been at this stage before nor have they been in this position. How will they handle the pressure and expectation?

"We all know it won't be a walk in the park in Madrid," said coach Jürgen Klopp.

Even so, Dortmund must take great confidence from the following: They're the only team yet to lose in the competition. They controlled long stretches of the first leg and lest we forget, they were unlucky not to win on their visit to the Bernabeu in the group stages earlier this season, a Mesut Özil free-kick in the 89th minute rescuing Real from the jaws of defeat.

Dortmund have what it takes to match Real even on their own turf. With that in mind, back the draw at 4.7.

Recommended Bets

Back Lewandowski to score at 2.02

Back Lewandowski to finish top scorer in this year's Champions League at 5.2

Back the draw at 4.7