Back goals on a difficult weekend of fixtures

16Feb 2013

England - The Championship

Just seven Championship games for Mike Norman to get his teeth into on Saturday, and our man isn't overly keen on any of them in terms of predicting a winner, so instead it's fingers crossed for goals...

From a punting perspective, Saturday's Championship fixtures couldn't be any harder to predict. Ignoring the early kick-off (which we'll get to shortly) only Hull can be backed at odds-on which indicates just what trappy affairs we have to choose from.

Of course, when games are so difficult to call in terms of predicting a winner there are different approaches you can take to try and profit. For me that means looking at the goals markets, and that's exactly what I've done for two of this week's picks. But first, Cardiff.

Cardiff 1.56 v Bristol City 7.2; The Draw 4.6

Last week I highlighted what a good price Cardiff were away to Huddersfield in comparison to Leicester's price away to Peterborough. With hindsight it appears the Cardiff price was about right, it was actually the Leicester price that was way too short, and I'm slightly annoyed at not backing Posh to win.

Before the game I said this, "I'm not convinced that I want to let Peterborough go un-backed at 5.4. I will though, but very reluctantly." Peterborough won that game of course, but I won't make the same mistake again when I believe a team to be over-priced.

And that means I'm taking a speculative punt on Bristol City to win this game as in my opinion no club should be priced at over 7.0 in this division. In recent months, we've already seen Cardiff lose at home to Peterborough, Bristol City cause a shock themselves away to a then bang-in-form Middlesbrough side, and of course, last week's shock result for the Foxes.

In a nutshell then, shocks happen frequently in the Championship, enough times in fact for me to back any side that is available at 7.2 pre-match, regardless of the opposition.

And it's not as if we're taking on an unbeatable side with a team that can't win for toffee either. Although remaining rock solid at the back, Cardiff have scored just nine goals in their last nine league games and amongst their last four games on home soil they've been held by lowly Ipswich as well as that loss to Peterborough.

Bristol City meanwhile have won three of their last four and are starting to play some good football under new boss Sean O'Driscoll.

Of course the most likely outcome is a home victory, but at the odds the away side are definitely worth chancing. The finishing line is in sight for Cardiff and that in itself can bring upon pressures. The Robins are in form, and have absolutely nothing to lose here.

Recommended Bet: Back Bristol City to win @ 7.2

Crystal Palace 2.18 v Middlesbrough 3.8; The Draw 4.5

My initial instinct for this game was to check the odds on offer about Under 2.5 Goals. Two relatively out of form sides (two league wins in 11 for Palace, one win in six for Boro) who have gone through lean spells in front of goal recently - surely we'll get a low-scoring game.

So I was surprised to see 'Unders' available to back at 2.06, so much so that I took another look at the game in question. And now I'm firmly in the 'Overs' camp - Over 3.5 Goals in fact.

Despite Palace's recent poor run this is still a side that score plenty of goals, and this is still a side managed by attack-minded boss Ian Holloway. Their home games this season have averaged almost exactly 3.5 goals per game, and they've only failed to find the net a Selhurst Park once this term.

I spoke in midweek about how Middlesbrough are struggling at the back - they'd conceded 15 in six games prior to beating Leeds on Tuesday night - and I can see them conceding one or two in this game. But like Palace, despite their recent poor form they have the ability to score goals, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if this game turned out to be highly entertaining.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.2

Ipswich 2.64 v Blackpool 2.92; The Draw 3.5

Another venue we can expect to see goals this weekend is Portman Park. Recent scorelines involving Ipswich that read 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1 might not inspire confidence, but it's more to do with their opponents that leads me to believe this could be an entertaining game.

Despite numerous managerial changes Blackpool's philosophy is still to attack, and with Thomas Ince in their side they are capable of creating decent chances, whilst at the other end they find it very difficult to prevent the opposition from scoring. From their last 18 league and cup games, Both teams to Score paid out a massive 16 times.

A total of 12 of those games paid out on Over 2.5 Goals too, and I perceive Ipswich under Mick McCarthy as a well organised side that likes to hit the opposition on the counter, so if the Tangerines do manage to get a goal or two, it's easy to see the home side responding.

They destroyed Middlesbrough recently by defending superbly and doing exactly what I've mentioned, and I can see a similar amount of goals being scored in this encounter.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.2 (best bet)