Back Dortmund to gain a second half victory

8Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

It's all to play for in Germany as Borussia Dortmund host Malaga, while in Turkey Real Madrid just need to be professional to progress to the next round. James Horncastle briefly previews both games...

Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

Tuesday 19:45, live on Sky Spors 1

You wonder if Borussia Dortmund will be made to regret the chances they missed in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Malaga. Mario Götze was through one-on-one with goalkeeper Willy Caballero three times. Robert Lewandowski also managed to fluff a gilt-edged opportunity. An away goal or two or three should have been theirs. Instead they were held to a 0-0 draw.

Their frustration, however, was tempered by optimism. Because the general sensation was that were Dortmund to play as well as they did again, they probably would score and beat Malaga in the second leg.

The market has them favourites to win on the night at 1.46 and to qualify for the semi-finals at 1.36. Dortmund are the only team left in the Champions League who are still unbeaten. They've tasted victory in each of their four home games in the competition this season, all of which have come against highly-regarded opposition like Ajax, Real Madrid, Manchester City and Shakhtar Donetsk.

They've conceded only once at the Westfalenstadion too and that was a Cristiano Ronaldo goal, so you anticipate that Dortmund will be confident they can avoid letting in an away goal.

There's further encouragement too in that Malaga haven't won on their travels in the Champions League since October. They've drawn twice since then and suffered defeat on their last outing to Porto in the first leg of their last 16 knock-out tie. Without centre-back Weligton, a big loss, and midfield enforcer Manuel Iturra, it's a tall order.

There's uncertainty too. Sadly coach Manuel Pellegrini's father Emilio died at the weekend and reports claimed he flew back home to Chile following Saturday's 4-2 defeat to Real Sociedad, a game Malaga made eight changes for despite it being an important fixture in their bid to qualify for the Champions League again next season. It's hoped he'll be back on the bench for Tuesday night.

Expect Malaga still to keep it quite close. This has been their forte throughout the competition this season. Under 2.5 Goals has an attraction at 2.1. As does the following: Dortmund have been drawing at half-time in three of their four Champions League games this season before going on to win. That trend can be backed to continue at 4.7 in the Half Time/Full Time Market.

Recommended Bet

Back Draw HT/Dortmund FT @ 4.7

Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Tuesday 19:45, live on ITV1

Tuesday's other quarter-final second leg between Galatasaray and Real Madrid at the Türk Telekom Arena in Istanbul isn't anywhere near as delicately poised. Don't let that make you think it's not worth your attention, though. There's a chance after winning the first leg 3-0 last week that Real Madrid might get complacent.

Mentally, it's hard to find the right approach to a game when you have such a lead. We saw this in the last round of both the Champions League and Europa League. Bayern and Tottenham had commanding advantages from their first legs against Arsenal and Inter Milan respectively, but so very nearly threw them away in the second. Might Real do the same?

They will be without the suspended Sergio Ramos and Xabi Alonso. Galatasaray have made an appeal to UEFA to get Burak Yilmaz's ban overturned. Even if that were to be unsuccessful, they'd still have Didier Drogba up front. Which makes getting a spirited and face-saving result a possibility.

Galatasaray famously beat Real Madrid 3-2 in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final at the Ali Sami Yen 12 years ago. I'd back the draw, though, at 4.0.

Recommended Bet

Back The Draw @ 4.0