AZ are terrible value against Breda

24Feb 2013

Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar are a very short price for their clash with Breda in the Dutch Eredevisie this afternoon but with just one point from a possible nine, Paul Robinson doesn't think that their odds are justified.

Well what can I say? Our lay of Groningen yesterday was looking good with the last minute of injury time to play as the score remained 0-0. It would have provided a much needed winner after a poor couple of weeks, however it wasn't to be as Michael de Leeuw netted with almost the last kick of the game.

That's gambling though; sometimes you get the rub and sometimes you don't. We're showing a negative this year after a healthy profit in 2012 but I am confident of turning it around and hopefully readers also follow my Fixed Odds selections that are published every Tuesday as they are showing an 11pt profit in 2013.

On to matters at hand though and last season's fourth placed finishers AZ are currently languishing in 12th with just 25 points from 23 fixtures. They are a whopping 19 points off Twente in the final automatic qualifying spot for the Europa League and they have lost two of their last three matches.

Gertjan Verbeek's side were beaten by Groningen (the less said about them the better) the last time they played on home soil and they've since gone on to lose 3-1 at Feyenoord and draw with the relegation threatened Roda JC.

Discipline has been a problem for The Cheese Farmers and they've amassed an incredible seven red cards in the league thus far and that is clearly one of the factors hurting them. Their form at home is a further issue as since they opened up their campaign with 11 points from a possible 15 at the AFAS Stadion, they've collected just four from the last 21 on offer.

NAC Breda have managed to climb to within one point and one place of today's opponents, thanks largely to three consecutive victories since the winter break. That run was ended in a 2-1 defeat at ADO Den Haag but they were reduced to 10 men in the second half and they have since followed that up with a solid 1-1 draw at home to Heracles.

After a dismal start to the season, manager John Karelse was relieved of his duties and Nebojsa Gudelj has turned things around since his appointment in November. Following the dismissal of Karelse, Breda have lost just five of their subsequent 14 league games and only two of their last nine. Their record on the road is played six, won two, drawn two and lost two, with 10 goals scored and clean sheets at Roda JC and RKC Waalwijk.

The recent head to head record between the pair is also very interesting as AZ haven't won any of the last half dozen meetings between the two, with four being draws and the rest being Breda wins.

I'm not disputing that AZ shouldn't be the favourites here, but after looking at all the evidence on offer, I can't see why they are so short at 1.53. It screams of poor value, and that is why I'm making them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay AZ Alkmaar v Breda @ 1.53

This match can be seen on Betfair Live Video at 15:30