ATP Sony Open Betting: Murray to come through tricky Gasquet test

29Mar 2013

ATP Masters 1000

Andy Murray is in action once again at the 2013 Sony Open tonight when he takes on Frenchman Richard Gasquet. Sean Calvert casts his eye over the best bets..

Thursday night's tennis watching was a thoroughly frustrating experience for those that backed Marin Cilic +4.5 games against Andy Murray in Miami.

The Croatian failed by just a couple of points to land the odds amidst a hail of unforced errors and most frustratingly of all a string of missed volleys with the court at his mercy.

On the balance of play the 6-4, 6-3 scoreline flattered Murray, but Cilic has only himself to blame for some truly shocking misses at vital times. He was also pretty unfortunate at key moments, such as when a dead net cord went Murray's way to save a break point, but it's good news for backers of my outright tip of Murray as he proceeds to the semi finals today.

The Scot is scheduled in the second semi final of the day at around 11pm UK time tonight after David Ferrer vs Tommy Haas, which takes place at 7pm UK time.

Murray takes on Richard Gasquet, who enjoyed a straight sets win over Tomas Berdych last night and it will be the eighth meeting of a series that Murray leads 4-3.

They haven't met since the French Open almost a year ago that after dropping the opening set Murray won at a canter and this could be another tricky one for Andy with Gasquet playing well at the moment.

Interestingly, the winner of the opening set has gone on to lose the match in four of the last five meetings between this pair, which may make for a good opportunity if that sequence were to continue.

I expect Murray to come through this one, but it could very well be tough and it's worth considering Gasquet on the handicap with a 4.5 game start or the bet that I like in this, which is the total games market.

Only one of their best of three set meetings has been decided in two sets and that was their very first match back in 2006 and what tends to happen is that Gasquet starts well and Murray finds a way.

In their last three meetings Gasquet has won six games in the opening set before fading, but four of their last five meetings have been at Slams and over this shorter distance the Gasman should be more willing to tough it out.

Murray hasn't dropped a set this week so far, but I think he might today and the 2-1 Murray win at around 4.3 is another option, but I'm siding with over 22.5 total games at around 2.2.